I think we may be looking at the MOST trickiest moment in BTC history.
As most of us know, history doesn't repeat but does rhyme a lot when it comes to financial markets.
Now first of all i want to make it clear that i am making this analysis from a complete objective point of view.
I am going to mention the Bullish and Bearish case below in point form and it is up to you to decide which one is more probable to happen.
Just a small disclaimer first. Everything you see and read on this post is nothing but my own personal opinions and thoughts about the bitcoin market and should not be taken as financial advice in any way, shape or form. I am not a financial expert nor a professional.
The points below relate to the Trend Based Fib Time levels, Fib Retracements and BTC's halving dates on the chart. The points simply explain how BTC has been rhyming with history so well in both bullish and bearish manners.
So without further due, let's dive right into it;
THE BULLISH CASE
1. BTC has bottomed pior to each halving and started it's parabolic rise right after the 1st and 2nd halving.
2. The bear market of 2014 bottomed at the 0.854 fib retracement level which is the same level we bottomed in Dec 2018.
3. Just looking at basic price action, the BULLS seem to be in control since Dec 2018.
4. There is quite a significant amount of developments happening around the world in regards to blockchain & crypto
(could be a sign for mass adoption)
THE BEARISH CASE
1. The 0.854 trend based fib time level (TBFTL) of the 2014 bear market was almost equal to the length of the entire 2011 bear market.
After the 0.854 in 2014, BTC made a parabolic rise and went sideways into the 1.382 TBFTL, slightly passing it then continued downwards to the 2.618 TBFTL making it's final bottom.
Very interestingly BTC has been doing pretty much the exact same thing up to this point since the beginning of the 2018 bear market.
In the chart you can see that the 0.854 TBFTL of the 2018 bear market is almost equal to the entire bear market of 2014.
We rallied immediately after passing it just like we did in 2014, went sideways passing the 1.382 and we are currently at the point where if BTC decides to continue rhyming according to the TBFTL, we could be heading down towards 2.618 and bottom out sometime in Q4 of 2020.
2. The parabolic rise from april to June happened too quick, didn't abide by any TA rule whatsoever and many top analysts in the space see the rise as non organic and do not trust it. Therefore still stand by the thought that it could have just been a huge bull trap and also the majority of the space is currently BULLISH, almost certain that the bottom is in and believe the new bull run has begun. (contrarian signal).
3. Since BTC is only a 10 year old asset and hasn't been through any kind of a financial crises yet. Nobody knows how it will react if a recession or some other kind of global financial crises occurs.
4. Now i know you may be thinking "well, ok...you have made 3 nice points for the bearish case but the fact that we retraced 85.4% from ATH just like 2014 and the halving factor and all the news and the adoption just seem to be a more stronger case"... and yes, that could be true. BUT! (and that's a BIG but), just remember that the price of BTC retraced 93% in 2011.
Honestly, i am completely neutral at this point. I am equally Bullish as i am Bearish but the similarities from the past for both cases just amazed me and i thought "i couldn't be the only one who noticed this" so feel free to share your comments. I'm really curious on what people think of this cause it just feels like we are so stuck in the middle right now and REMEMBER!, we are in November and i think everybody knows by now that Nov. & Dec. have always been months that BTC has made huge moves so sit tight cause i think a big move can happen any moment now. November 11'th and 13'th are too very important dates i am looking at for the major move and Dec 13th to 18th for the end of that major move.
As most of us know, history doesn't repeat but does rhyme a lot when it comes to financial markets.
Now first of all i want to make it clear that i am making this analysis from a complete objective point of view.
I am going to mention the Bullish and Bearish case below in point form and it is up to you to decide which one is more probable to happen.
Just a small disclaimer first. Everything you see and read on this post is nothing but my own personal opinions and thoughts about the bitcoin market and should not be taken as financial advice in any way, shape or form. I am not a financial expert nor a professional.
The points below relate to the Trend Based Fib Time levels, Fib Retracements and BTC's halving dates on the chart. The points simply explain how BTC has been rhyming with history so well in both bullish and bearish manners.
So without further due, let's dive right into it;
THE BULLISH CASE
1. BTC has bottomed pior to each halving and started it's parabolic rise right after the 1st and 2nd halving.
2. The bear market of 2014 bottomed at the 0.854 fib retracement level which is the same level we bottomed in Dec 2018.
3. Just looking at basic price action, the BULLS seem to be in control since Dec 2018.
4. There is quite a significant amount of developments happening around the world in regards to blockchain & crypto
(could be a sign for mass adoption)
THE BEARISH CASE
1. The 0.854 trend based fib time level (TBFTL) of the 2014 bear market was almost equal to the length of the entire 2011 bear market.
After the 0.854 in 2014, BTC made a parabolic rise and went sideways into the 1.382 TBFTL, slightly passing it then continued downwards to the 2.618 TBFTL making it's final bottom.
Very interestingly BTC has been doing pretty much the exact same thing up to this point since the beginning of the 2018 bear market.
In the chart you can see that the 0.854 TBFTL of the 2018 bear market is almost equal to the entire bear market of 2014.
We rallied immediately after passing it just like we did in 2014, went sideways passing the 1.382 and we are currently at the point where if BTC decides to continue rhyming according to the TBFTL, we could be heading down towards 2.618 and bottom out sometime in Q4 of 2020.
2. The parabolic rise from april to June happened too quick, didn't abide by any TA rule whatsoever and many top analysts in the space see the rise as non organic and do not trust it. Therefore still stand by the thought that it could have just been a huge bull trap and also the majority of the space is currently BULLISH, almost certain that the bottom is in and believe the new bull run has begun. (contrarian signal).
3. Since BTC is only a 10 year old asset and hasn't been through any kind of a financial crises yet. Nobody knows how it will react if a recession or some other kind of global financial crises occurs.
4. Now i know you may be thinking "well, ok...you have made 3 nice points for the bearish case but the fact that we retraced 85.4% from ATH just like 2014 and the halving factor and all the news and the adoption just seem to be a more stronger case"... and yes, that could be true. BUT! (and that's a BIG but), just remember that the price of BTC retraced 93% in 2011.
Honestly, i am completely neutral at this point. I am equally Bullish as i am Bearish but the similarities from the past for both cases just amazed me and i thought "i couldn't be the only one who noticed this" so feel free to share your comments. I'm really curious on what people think of this cause it just feels like we are so stuck in the middle right now and REMEMBER!, we are in November and i think everybody knows by now that Nov. & Dec. have always been months that BTC has made huge moves so sit tight cause i think a big move can happen any moment now. November 11'th and 13'th are too very important dates i am looking at for the major move and Dec 13th to 18th for the end of that major move.