BTC is trying to end the bear market as we speak

Previous post describing the situation (important read):

Update on the situation

So, BTC got rejected at the most crucial bollinger band in BTC history. Not a surprise at this point, but momentum on this swing from the 6ks was decent enough to make BTC put up a spectacular fight, which is by no means over yet.

The brilliant buyback from 9.5k shows that bulls have the strength to go for another attempt to break the band, but the chances aren't much better. The reason for this is, a bollinger band becomes increasingly difficult to break if its level is rising. BTC will face the extreme resistance later than at the first attempt, probably from 10.4k onwards up to 10.7k (main resistance) and up to 11.4k (zone from which a 3D and weekly candle can easily reject and close below the band).

Let me repeat this: Breaking this band puts BTC in a bull market according to the bband definition I made in my last post. And its accuracy is 100% to date. Does it have to hold true this time? Not at all. Are signs implying history repeating? It certainly is.

So my current outlook hasn't changed. I'm expecting volatile PA in this zone between 9-11k a little longer and then a lengthy correction after which we enter a very boring phase for a few weeks or even months in which BTC is entering the peak of the bullish macro triangle pattern. In the past, BTC crossed the decisive bollinger band at a time when nobody was watching as price went almost sideways and volume was super low for weeks and months. A silent and sneaky start into the bullrun, that surprised the majority of the market.

A repetition would be glorious, wouldn't it?

Take care.

Comment:

This dump to my second target support zone at 9.2k was the confirmation that this entire range is a distribution range. Chances are high we see a trending phase down to 9-8.5k. But I need to see some completed 12H-D-3D candles first. At the moment I can't rule out a buyback, although I must say, I don't expect it at this point - at least not with a new high.

Comment:

Wow, this development right below the band is exactly what happened the past two pre-bullmarket stages.

What is supposed to follow is a decrease in volatility over the next weeks. A dump to 8.8-8.5 or even 7.8-7.2 is possible and does not endanger this super-bullish development at all. A jump to 11k is also still very much possible, with an immediate rejection down to 9-10.5k. For now, this PA is playing out much better than I had anticipated to make the third transition from bear to bull market a reality.

Comment:

We're 150-200$ away from the CME gap, and already below the 200D SMA, touched the 200D EMA and many more. We are well below the trendline connecting the recent Y candle body lows, which has been acting as a magnet for price for many months.

Confluence is strong in this one.

I'm starting to buy heavily now although we can still go down to the 7ks. But atm everything is still looking exactly like it's playing out the scenario I outlined.

Comment:

All signs are favoring a bullish scenario here, which could mean we find a bottom at 8.3-8.5k, and according to my theory, it should be the very last time we see this level.

What is supposed to follow is a strong rally up to 11-11.4k (gap fill + volume pump through the band), followed by a retracement to 10.5-10.8k (retest of that bband).

And then, the bull market will start with a slow grind up to 14k, and a fast acceleration after breaking 14k.

Comment:

The selling pressure over the past days was insane, but it is even more insane that bulls actually managed to defend the 8.5k despite daily-closing below 200D-SMA+EMA, which usually lures in a whole bunch of breakout traders.

The bullish reaction is following the ideal scenario I outlined. However, I'd like to see HTF closes in that range and above. Before that happens, there will still be a force pulling BTC down, which might lead to sharp sudden drops.

The next 24-48 hrs will tell if we can expect a reversal here. Either way, I'm filled and ready for new ATHs.

Comment:

'that range' is 8800+, better 9100+

Comment:

This bounce to 9150 was important. I'm expecting a grind up to 9.6-9.7k with a retracement from there. Going to reassess afterwards.

Swings will probably become smaller and smaller during the next weeks as we are entering the final stages of the macro squeeze (triangle).

Comment:

So, after the weak breakout to the upside from this ascending triangle, we saw a violent sell-off directly afterwards. I had to look at the chart very closely to find the reason, and I had overlooked it before.

A level we tried to gain but failed to do so was tested here.

I personally had my shorts right before 9250 so I didn't get my entries. But that's ok, there are plenty opportunities. For now I do think this big H&S can play out, although I don't believe in patters like that. This weakness at 9.2k makes me believe we are heading lower though. So I put my long SL in profit and planning better entries in the 8.1-7.6k region.

All this PA doesn't invalidate the big picture though. It's just noise.

Comment:

BTC moving lightning-fast. So there we are at the entrance to the big demand zone ranging from 8k-7.4k. I strongly believe we will see our bottom somewhere in this zone. If not, I will have to reanalyze as a weekly close below 7.4k is putting my theory at invalidation risk. But for now, everything is going perfectly fine.

Comment:

Well, with this dump the scenario got invalidated. My SL got hit and I'm out. If this doesn't get bought up, which I don't believe will happen, BTC might be at risk of a complete reversal for the first time in history.

Although I lost on this one, I'm happy to have made this trade as it was an excellent setup with a clean story. But markets teach us that no matter how promising a setup looks, it doesn't necessarily have to play out.