It is known that the more liquidity enters into an asset the less volatile it is. Besides, the time elapsed for every cycle will increase. During the last four months bitcoin has been gaining momentum to the point of vanishing the 6k heavy resistance, what is very weird to me honestly. Everybody is very bullish on bitcoin but I will try to explain why I think the bull market has not started yet.
To me there are 3 reasons why I think BTC will make a lower low in the short term:
1. Has not reached the bottom curve yet. This pattern has been taking place in every bubble and, as I said before, cycles are getting slower. 100MA is just overlapping the lower curve, everybody is looking at 50MA because was the previous cycle support, but in this ocassion we must keep an eye on the 100MA.
2. NVT is showing that BTC is overbought, every time this happened in this timeframe
BLX
was followed by a huge correction.
3. Bitcoin bubbles are always followed by Fibonacci indicators (fib. Extensions, fib. Retracements during an uptrend…), in this case, each bubble took place when 1.628 x (time elapsed between previous bubble).
• Number 8 coincides with 1st bubble’s ATH;
• Number 13 with 2nd bubble’s ATH;
• Number 21 with 3rd bubble’s ATH; and
• Number 34 might the 4th bubble’s ATH. (210K $/BTC)
Halving is the main tool for deflation but seems to me that BTC will not reach a new ATH in a short-midterm. By the way, this is not a financial advice nor I am telling you to sell BTC is just my personal opinion.
To me there are 3 reasons why I think BTC will make a lower low in the short term:
1. Has not reached the bottom curve yet. This pattern has been taking place in every bubble and, as I said before, cycles are getting slower. 100MA is just overlapping the lower curve, everybody is looking at 50MA because was the previous cycle support, but in this ocassion we must keep an eye on the 100MA.
2. NVT is showing that BTC is overbought, every time this happened in this timeframe
BLX
was followed by a huge correction. 3. Bitcoin bubbles are always followed by Fibonacci indicators (fib. Extensions, fib. Retracements during an uptrend…), in this case, each bubble took place when 1.628 x (time elapsed between previous bubble).
• Number 8 coincides with 1st bubble’s ATH;
• Number 13 with 2nd bubble’s ATH;
• Number 21 with 3rd bubble’s ATH; and
• Number 34 might the 4th bubble’s ATH. (210K $/BTC)
Halving is the main tool for deflation but seems to me that BTC will not reach a new ATH in a short-midterm. By the way, this is not a financial advice nor I am telling you to sell BTC is just my personal opinion.