Confirming 10350 as support marks the end of the BTC bear market
There are plenty ways to make a distinction between bull and bear markets. Hereby, I throw my hat into the ring, showing you a completely different definition of bull and bear markets for BTC by using only one criterion.
Let me say this first
Over the course of the past three years, I've honed my understanding of bollinger bands and in particular, fibonacci-derived bollinger bands. Traders and analysts often laugh at me when I tell them about bbands, as they clearly don't understand how to use them properly and extract value from them. I just want to remind everyone of the fact that open-mindedness and learning are crucial in becoming a better analyst and trader. This is where you can learn something new even if you're a specialist or professional in your own style with your own methods.
On to the chart
The chart I present you is not only proof of the significance of bbands in the context of long-term market structure, but also a waypost of some sort. The first thing to note is that the bband I use here is not a normal bband, it is based on much more data than default bbands are (see setup info below for more on that).
So, a quick look at the chart reveals that, whenever price is above that band, we're in a bull market, and whenever price is below, we're in a bear market.
The accuracy with which price has been interacting with this band is even stronger than with any other long-term MA or EMA. You can also see various tests and retests of that band, the most prominent being in early 2018 after marking the new ATH and falling through the band. These tests are what determines a market type change from bull to bear or bear to bull. Before each and every bullrun, tests like that happened (confirmation of support) after it had been broken, leading to momentum picking up pace drastically directly afterwards. This is true for both directions.
As you can also see, the recent rally led to 4 (to 5) very obvious tests of this bband. These tests have been hitting the band exactly and we haven't got any 3D candle close above yet. Right now, we're approaching the band again at 10250-10350. I don't know if BTC can break this level right now, it's certainly possible but not as likely. My preference is to see consolidation in a zone below that band while we slowly drift into the peak of that major continuation triangle pattern.
The triangle can be drawn in various ways, and some models show we can go as low as 4-5k before hitting a true triangle bottom (which would still be bullish), but my eyes are focused on a scenario that makes it likely to start a bullrun by end of 2020/beginning of 2021 as it complies more with the parabolic trend we're in.
So, the event that I'm looking for in order to become extremely bullish is
1. a move to a level at least 5-10% above 10350
2. a lengthy test of the 10250-10350 area with a bounce
Upon seeing this, I believe we are on the way to break the continuation pattern to the upside.
How to add the bband to your TV chart:
- 3D BLX chart
- Add indicator 'Fibonacci Bollinger Bands' from public library
- Length 200
- Multiplicator 2.5
- Then disable all bands in style options besides the .618 from the top
Take care!
Let me say this first
Over the course of the past three years, I've honed my understanding of bollinger bands and in particular, fibonacci-derived bollinger bands. Traders and analysts often laugh at me when I tell them about bbands, as they clearly don't understand how to use them properly and extract value from them. I just want to remind everyone of the fact that open-mindedness and learning are crucial in becoming a better analyst and trader. This is where you can learn something new even if you're a specialist or professional in your own style with your own methods.
On to the chart
The chart I present you is not only proof of the significance of bbands in the context of long-term market structure, but also a waypost of some sort. The first thing to note is that the bband I use here is not a normal bband, it is based on much more data than default bbands are (see setup info below for more on that).
So, a quick look at the chart reveals that, whenever price is above that band, we're in a bull market, and whenever price is below, we're in a bear market.
The accuracy with which price has been interacting with this band is even stronger than with any other long-term MA or EMA. You can also see various tests and retests of that band, the most prominent being in early 2018 after marking the new ATH and falling through the band. These tests are what determines a market type change from bull to bear or bear to bull. Before each and every bullrun, tests like that happened (confirmation of support) after it had been broken, leading to momentum picking up pace drastically directly afterwards. This is true for both directions.
As you can also see, the recent rally led to 4 (to 5) very obvious tests of this bband. These tests have been hitting the band exactly and we haven't got any 3D candle close above yet. Right now, we're approaching the band again at 10250-10350. I don't know if BTC can break this level right now, it's certainly possible but not as likely. My preference is to see consolidation in a zone below that band while we slowly drift into the peak of that major continuation triangle pattern.
The triangle can be drawn in various ways, and some models show we can go as low as 4-5k before hitting a true triangle bottom (which would still be bullish), but my eyes are focused on a scenario that makes it likely to start a bullrun by end of 2020/beginning of 2021 as it complies more with the parabolic trend we're in.
So, the event that I'm looking for in order to become extremely bullish is
1. a move to a level at least 5-10% above 10350
2. a lengthy test of the 10250-10350 area with a bounce
Upon seeing this, I believe we are on the way to break the continuation pattern to the upside.
How to add the bband to your TV chart:
- 3D BLX chart
- Add indicator 'Fibonacci Bollinger Bands' from public library
- Length 200
- Multiplicator 2.5
- Then disable all bands in style options besides the .618 from the top
Take care!
Comment:
Upon meeting the 0.5 retracement level and passing some crucial monthly levels, we have entered bband's zone of direct influence (where a retracement or rejection is likely). The drop from 10.2 to 9.8 (as of now) signals that the zone around 10.3 is no joke.
1. This could be profit-taking and a healthy retracement to gain strength in order to bust through the resistance
2. This could have been the reversal already (new target 8.5 for now)
3. If we see recovery from here, I'll look for H&S patterns, this first attempt to enter the bband region could very well be the left shoulder then
1. This could be profit-taking and a healthy retracement to gain strength in order to bust through the resistance
2. This could have been the reversal already (new target 8.5 for now)
3. If we see recovery from here, I'll look for H&S patterns, this first attempt to enter the bband region could very well be the left shoulder then
Comment:
Comment:
We're still testing the band. This can take from days up to several weeks, because it is this kind of long-term R/S that it takes some candles even at major TF to come to a decision here (if it's not a easy-to-reject monster pump *cough* October *cough*)... Danger zone to enter trades here right now and volatility is to be expected.
Comment:
Ups, I accidentally posted the update in the comment section. See below.
Comment:
Looking more and more like a full-fledged rejection from the bband. Will add to my short from 10.4k at retest levels.
For now, everyhing is playing out as outlined, almost too perfect imo. BTC surely has some surprise for us in store.
For now, everyhing is playing out as outlined, almost too perfect imo. BTC surely has some surprise for us in store.
Comment:
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1. Cross BB and confirm it as support
2. Cross Y upper body end of the candle that marked the previous ATH