ExcessAlpha

Bitcoin cycle peak may be closer than many think

BNC:BLX   Bitcoin Liquid Index
Small reality-check for the moonboys drawing on non-logarithmic paper, the moon may be nearer than it appears.

A peak here would be relatively early given the recent halving, however that could be explained because this time around the market is front-running the expectation of such peak more so than before. And of course Elon Musk is a smart guy, but he also has a lot of friends that are privately knee-deep in crypto and have a personal rather than an objective incentive to 'convince' Elon to make certain bets. Other big companies joining the hype seem to be doing so out of fear of missing out, not because they truly believe it allows them to provide a better product. The smart ones feeling some fomo probably see that worst case scenario, the current levels will be the bottom of next bear market.

Personally I'm spot long with profits only, having cashed out all initial investment so I can still sleep without fomo. But I am not newly buying at these levels and don't recommend anyone to do so. Fomo and hype is so big right now, I don't think it can get much bigger. Good luck to all. Don't leverage.
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