TheWolfofPoloniex

Long-term analysis, in search of BTCs bottom

Long
BNC:BLX   Bitcoin Liquid Index
$BTC is currently touching the 1-Week bottom Bollinger Band. >>EVERY<< single time it has touched the bottom 1W BB, it has had a significant bounce (indicated by the blue arrows). It is also close to hitting the LONG TERM uptrend line (blue line) which has ALSO provided significant support & bounces since the dawn of time.... :O....

Ok, a little over-dramatic there, however you can see (Red Arrows) that the long-term trend seems to be a VERY stable support for $BTC.

Upon further inspection, you can see that there has been a VERY limited time BTC has touched both the 1W bollinger-band + the (blue line) uptrend simultaneously (purple arrow).

With all of this being said, I believe we will see a relief bounce from the 1W Bollinger support, fairly soon. This will create a Bullish Divergence on the CMF, as we can clearly see that the market has been buying, even though the price has been bleeding down. Now, we could argue whether that's due to whale suppression or illiquid order books... but I'll leave that up for you to discuss. The bounce up + Bull Div would keep the price ranging sideways, for an extended period of time (1-3 months, possibly). I believe we'll be going sideways until we hit the blue trend, at which we will begin the next bullish cycle.

Just gonna take a wild speculative guess and say that the next bull rally will confirm sometime around.... the 20th of February, 2019.
-----

Tl;dr - We're capitulating.

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.