Bitcoin: halving is pressurizing market sellers, again

2015 : the market was too primitive at the time for the bullish prerequisites to be relevant, but let's still do it:
- Bottom of the market and coming halving in 2012 : 371 days.
- Bitcoin dropped around 90% from its cycle top, at least 1 year before the halving
- Bitcoin was above the weekly 50 Smma and used it as a support at least 6 months before the halving


2015
- Bottom of the market and coming halving in 2016 : 546 days.
- Bitcoin dropped around 85% from its cycle top, at least 1 year before the halving
- Bitcoin was above the weekly 50 Smma and used it as a support at least 6 months before the halving




2019:
- Bottom of the market and coming halving in 2020 : 525 days.
- Bitcoin dropped around 85% from its cycle top, at least 1 year before the halving
- Bitcoin is above the weekly 50 Smma and is using it as a support at least 6 months before the halving


Morals of the story :

Beeing long term bearish now (new lows, bitcoin goes to zero) is beeing counter trading the main behaviour of the Bitcoin market itself, which is very risky.
If Bitcoin settles below the weekly 50 Smma starting from now, be very fearful.
Odds to revisit the low 6k-high 5k area: low
Odds to revisit the 3k area: almost null

Take care