Looking at longterm trendlines with respect to bitcoin peaks, I came up with this idea to predict the next peak in Bitcoin. The time from the halvening to the next peak is simply estimated at 93 weeks, it could come much sooner. Tough to extrapolate this period based on only 2 prior halvenings. I am anticipating a slightly longer time period based somewhat on the first couple of halvening to peak time periods, and the fact that the Bitcoin market is maturing. And to be honest, it just fits my trendline and expected market structure better. Market structure plays more into this prediction than any other parameters. With a longer bear market period, perhaps the peak will take longer to form as well.
The trendline leading up to the peak at the previous bull cycle seems to coincide with the ceiling for the peak of the next bull cycle (2 cycles later). Bear in mind, there is not a lot of history to accurately extrapolate this relationship.
I like it for a rough estimate for the next Bitcoin peak. Based on this analysis, I expect the next peak in Bitcoin to top somewhere in the $200k to $240k range, likely sometime around Q2, 2022.
This is a rough prediction of next peak in Bitcoin and should not be relied upon as a clear target.
This is not trading advice.
Any comments or questions are welcome.
The trendline leading up to the peak at the previous bull cycle seems to coincide with the ceiling for the peak of the next bull cycle (2 cycles later). Bear in mind, there is not a lot of history to accurately extrapolate this relationship.
I like it for a rough estimate for the next Bitcoin peak. Based on this analysis, I expect the next peak in Bitcoin to top somewhere in the $200k to $240k range, likely sometime around Q2, 2022.
This is a rough prediction of next peak in Bitcoin and should not be relied upon as a clear target.
This is not trading advice.
Any comments or questions are welcome.