The purpose of this chart is to track my long-term Bitcoin position trading plan, which is quite simple really - Buy Low, Sell High ;)
Legend:
Blue vertical = halving
Green = cycle top
Red = cycle bottom
Orange horizontal = first major resistance after a blow-off top, won't break on first attempt during the next bull run
Dark red horizontal = false bottom; price might bounce a few times, but capitulation will follow
Black diagonal = respective cycles' trendlines; once a trendline is broken (inevitable), the next cycle's trendline comes into play
Time prediction:
Fall of 2020 = the next parabolic run starts - price will deviate from this cycle's trendline; start of the next cycle's trendline will be defined
Fall of 2021 = start scaling out of long positions
Fall of 2022 = start scaling into long positions
All levels and dates on the chart are just extremely rough estimations, but I guess that's obvious... Observe the price action, and adapt on the go. Good luck and don't forget to BLSH :D
Legend:
Blue vertical = halving
Green = cycle top
Red = cycle bottom
Orange horizontal = first major resistance after a blow-off top, won't break on first attempt during the next bull run
Dark red horizontal = false bottom; price might bounce a few times, but capitulation will follow
Black diagonal = respective cycles' trendlines; once a trendline is broken (inevitable), the next cycle's trendline comes into play
Time prediction:
Fall of 2020 = the next parabolic run starts - price will deviate from this cycle's trendline; start of the next cycle's trendline will be defined
Fall of 2021 = start scaling out of long positions
Fall of 2022 = start scaling into long positions
All levels and dates on the chart are just extremely rough estimations, but I guess that's obvious... Observe the price action, and adapt on the go. Good luck and don't forget to BLSH :D
Trade active:
Price has entered my buy zone, now is a good time to start building a spot position. I am not opening margin positions until I see signs of a LTF trend reversal. Don't forget to manage your risk and remember, this is a position trade that will take 18-22 months.
Comment:
Main entry hit. Expecting at least a short-term bounce here.
Comment:
Bottom of potential HTF bull flag hit. All in & partially closing my hedge - maybe too soon, but will reopen if PA indicates further decline.
Comment:
What a ride - talk about shaking out the weak hands! Hedge closed, adding + buying some alts for long term.
Trade active:
After almost a year, Bitcoin price is breaking out of the descending channel and man, we're cutting through weekly levels like it's no biggie! A LOT of bearish sentiment out there and stricter risk management in this range certainly makes sense, but I expect the price to reach 10.5-11.5k before making a significant retrace to 9.1-7.8k.
Trade active:
Price holding after being rejected at the major resistance (orange), but it's too early to tell. In any case, I will be adding on dips. Alts doing really well, too.
Trade active:
Watch the orange line. Oh, and did you buy the dip?
Comment:
Could be wrong, but feels like derisking here (16.8k) is not a terrible idea... The move can still extend significantly, so will be carefully scaling out up to 50%. A retest of 12k would be nice, but wouldn't rely on being able to buy there - I will simply DCA the correction.
Trade active:
May not be the bottom, but feels wrong not to start scaling into leveraged longs on this dip...