Could the start of the bull run just have been confirmed?
Could this be a confirmation of a large move upwards?
On the 1 Month time frame, after the RSI had bottomed and started moving above the RSI Moving average (yellow line) - the MA have in all 3 times moved in an area that decided if the momentum would move up or not.
The first time this happened, the MA failed to break above the previous high - but then made a higher low and then broke out.
I see this as the momentum breaking above the moving average, and then confirming that it wanted to stay above.
The confirmation on the 1st green vertical line show the moment that move was confirmed.
This happened in 2016 - and bitcoin went on to move 4337% from
The second time this happened, was in 2020.
While the RSI moving average was broken in April 2019, the retest of the moving average did not produce a higher high, and subsequently moved below the ma.
In September the RSI broke out, tested the moving average, and then proceeded to move above the previous high on the RSI.
This move made a 540% return on bitcoin.
The Third time, where we are now.
The RSI has broken above the RSI trendline, retested AND made a higher high.
The low was then tested, and while it made a lower low - it did not go below the moving average, and in 2 days time will be making a higher high on the RSI.
Now i cannot use this analysis to predict where the price of bitcoin will go, as the bitcoin network becomes more valuable, it requires more money to move the price.
I am confident however, that we have made our cycle lows, and with all the bullish news about a spot etf coming in I do believe that large returns on bitcoin will occur - however to believe that bitcoin could do 4300% is highly unlikely, and a return less than 500% from this period will be likely
I do believe, that if bitcoin closes the month at these prices, we will have a proper bitcoin bullrun.
Notice how the analysis also follows the bitcoin halving schedule
On the 1 Month time frame, after the RSI had bottomed and started moving above the RSI Moving average (yellow line) - the MA have in all 3 times moved in an area that decided if the momentum would move up or not.
The first time this happened, the MA failed to break above the previous high - but then made a higher low and then broke out.
I see this as the momentum breaking above the moving average, and then confirming that it wanted to stay above.
The confirmation on the 1st green vertical line show the moment that move was confirmed.
This happened in 2016 - and bitcoin went on to move 4337% from
The second time this happened, was in 2020.
While the RSI moving average was broken in April 2019, the retest of the moving average did not produce a higher high, and subsequently moved below the ma.
In September the RSI broke out, tested the moving average, and then proceeded to move above the previous high on the RSI.
This move made a 540% return on bitcoin.
The Third time, where we are now.
The RSI has broken above the RSI trendline, retested AND made a higher high.
The low was then tested, and while it made a lower low - it did not go below the moving average, and in 2 days time will be making a higher high on the RSI.
Now i cannot use this analysis to predict where the price of bitcoin will go, as the bitcoin network becomes more valuable, it requires more money to move the price.
I am confident however, that we have made our cycle lows, and with all the bullish news about a spot etf coming in I do believe that large returns on bitcoin will occur - however to believe that bitcoin could do 4300% is highly unlikely, and a return less than 500% from this period will be likely
I do believe, that if bitcoin closes the month at these prices, we will have a proper bitcoin bullrun.
Notice how the analysis also follows the bitcoin halving schedule