BTCUSD - Bearish/Bullish Predictions before the next halving
Hypothetical predictions merely to document for myself.
I see a double top cycle playing out (Bull->Bear->Bull). As $DXY rallies during the first half of 2021, BTC may see a collapse down to the 200 weekly SMA (red, then extended in pink). This would bring us into a short bear market similar to 2013. Using Stock to Flow (S2F) models, we would also find strong support in the 16K-20K range to not invalidate S2F (i have noted an inflection point in the red/pink lines with a star symbol). S2F has been consistent with predicting bottoms, around $40K in this instance and $3.5K in the last, and will shake out the moon boys. $DXY will resume its collapse in the latter half of 2021, kicking off the second top cycle up to 200K-300K in a blowoff top, before crashing down to $40K again before the next bitcoin halving.
I see a double top cycle playing out (Bull->Bear->Bull). As $DXY rallies during the first half of 2021, BTC may see a collapse down to the 200 weekly SMA (red, then extended in pink). This would bring us into a short bear market similar to 2013. Using Stock to Flow (S2F) models, we would also find strong support in the 16K-20K range to not invalidate S2F (i have noted an inflection point in the red/pink lines with a star symbol). S2F has been consistent with predicting bottoms, around $40K in this instance and $3.5K in the last, and will shake out the moon boys. $DXY will resume its collapse in the latter half of 2021, kicking off the second top cycle up to 200K-300K in a blowoff top, before crashing down to $40K again before the next bitcoin halving.
Comment:
best way to trade this is to dollar cost average (DCA) on a periodic basis to counter expected volatility, under the assumption we will continue to trend upwards with time.