I looked back at the past two bull cycles for Bitcoin and noticed that it took about 1096 days for price to breach the previous 2M closing cycle high, and then about 365 days from then to reach the next top.
If it follows this same timing, then we would expect price to breach $70k sometime around November of 2024, and then make a new cycle top toward the end of 2025.
If you were around during the last bull run, everyone kept talking about a Bitcoin ETF and how it was about to happen, which helped fuel the last bull run. But then it didn't, which could have been part of the reason why the last bull run fell short of may peoples expectations.
If a spot ETF does get approved, I wouldn't be surprised to see it fuel a speculative bubble only to mark the top near the launch date. The timing also lines up with the average time it takes for an ETF to get approved which is 221 days. Blackrock filed on June 15, 2023 so adding 221 days puts us at January 22, 2024.
We should find out shortly (over the next couple of weeks) whether Bitcoin price calms down, consolidates more around $30k, and takes the longer more gradual bull run path, but if we see it mark up to around
36K
soon, then I will assume it is taking the shorter path to a new top sometime end of 2023, early 2024.
We will see!
If it follows this same timing, then we would expect price to breach $70k sometime around November of 2024, and then make a new cycle top toward the end of 2025.
If you were around during the last bull run, everyone kept talking about a Bitcoin ETF and how it was about to happen, which helped fuel the last bull run. But then it didn't, which could have been part of the reason why the last bull run fell short of may peoples expectations.
If a spot ETF does get approved, I wouldn't be surprised to see it fuel a speculative bubble only to mark the top near the launch date. The timing also lines up with the average time it takes for an ETF to get approved which is 221 days. Blackrock filed on June 15, 2023 so adding 221 days puts us at January 22, 2024.
We should find out shortly (over the next couple of weeks) whether Bitcoin price calms down, consolidates more around $30k, and takes the longer more gradual bull run path, but if we see it mark up to around
36K
soon, then I will assume it is taking the shorter path to a new top sometime end of 2023, early 2024. We will see!