Critique-al-Thinker

BCH Resets its Would-Be 5th Wave Rally with Pullback

Long
KRAKEN:BCHUSD   Bitcoin Cash
With our crypto crash last week, Bitcoin Cash invalidated its PURPLE primary pattern with the break of 386.59. This means that our larger Wave 4 correction that started after the May 2021 peak had been continuing all this time with that purple subwave (i) actually being a fake-out rally!

Therefore, the GREEN pattern is now primary, and it has the entire 4th wave pullback identified as a double-zigzag (since the would-be C-wave is actually an ABC zigzag down, now labeled as 'Y'). It is not clear if the pullback is done yet, and we may see a slightly lower low to the 0.618 extension of our W-wave which would fall at about 324.07 on the chart. (FYI, there should have been a RED alt pattern on this chart as I had on all my other crypto charts... Point is now moot as GREEN has supplanted this.)

So what's the good news despite all this doom and gloom?! BCH has a clean slate on where it can go next. Without 1-2 setup present, we can't make a clear projection yet on where the top should go, so I've added the big green box as our rough target zone. This falls within the 0.382-0.618 extension range of our larger 3-4, a common Fibonacci proportion; this is 1139-2370.

However, as I'm interpreting the larger pattern starting from the Dec 2018 bottom as a diagonal, I'd expect the 5th wave to extend to somewhere between the 1.382 and 1.618 extensions of the larger 1-2. While the lower end of this range falls within the green box, the upper end falls at 3181! So yes, there's a puncher's chance we make it that high!

I use Elliott Wave analysis to project price levels for different assets and asset classes. EW is a form a technical analysis that is absolutely NOT based on fundamentals. Please be aware that this is not intended to act as financial advice. I am not a trained or certified financial professional. You may invest based on a strategy tailored to your own skill and risk-tolerance levels.

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