$BAT/$BTC - BINANCE - A Look Ahead
I was scrolling thru a watchlist and came across BAT/BTC. Chart looked interesting so i figured I'd take another trip down memory lane...
I was scrolling thru on the 4H but we might as well take a ride on the Weekly to get an idea of what this pair is up to this summer...
From a Macro perspective - this coin has literally just been trading in a range for 80 Weeks with one failed breakout attempt to the upside.
Strange right?
Volume is about what we would expect from the rise up during the breakout and the since fallen volume during the decline - showing weakness for continuation to the downside.
The ORANGE box is there to represent the area of interest in which price failed on the weekly to close into or above and instead was rejected and price inevitably reversed.
DAILY -
The Daily gives up better perspective at the moves up.
Not including the initial move from the Downside to the creation of the Resistance Zone, there were 4 Moves.
2 of which went from bottom to top of range - 173% and 191% respectively while the other two were from retrace support zones after the last attempt failed - 93% and of course the one that broke the rules - 216%.
Using a Trend Based Fib Extension with is slightly different from a regular fib with extensions because Anchors 1 and 3 can be mis aligned we get something Very interesting. More or less a perfect 1.618 right to the top of this ATH move based off of a previous support and a repeatable pattern thru range from previous price action.
interesting indeed.
With this knowledge - using the 2056 low as our anchor one to watch the fall for support changes things a little bit, instead of using the traditional swing low from the move to the high.
So let's take a closer look at the drop.
The fall from range high that created the swing low to the high was 50.43%
ATH to local low is a drawdown of 77.76%
BUT ATH to the LOW before the range move = 78.13% and it took 221 days to get to the ATH from there with only 86 days for our current low... - These are just numbers, to which some of them are really fascinating...
Moving on...
1.7% Away from a Dbl Bot - In my opinion - less than 2% is good for me.
BUT - LOOK at where our Local bottom is... 2091 - Just ONE SATOSHI above our Global 786 (Global being ATL - ATH
So awhile back I located an area I considered High Risk as there was nothing really indicating reversal. We have historical support but that's really catching a knife with no consideration of confirmation...
It ended up being a very high risk but profitable trade. Don't develop bad habits...
The trade went 48% and the top was somewhat predetermined but we are getting off track here, the point is we gave it all back. Painted a local Dbl Bot, found temp support and LOST that too.
The point is THIS... Now We HAVE A DOUBLE BOTTOM and the confluence from the Global 786 for Support. The reaction however is lackluster...
So, the million dollar question - did we find bottom?
If BTC was in a range for 30+ days then I would say that we likely found an area where some money can be made. A very simple an obvious stop 1 to 2% below our global 786 and it becomes less risky...
HOWEVER - this is a BTC trade pair and not a USDT trade and BTC just printed an $850 only but a few hours ago....so, I cannot recommend this is the bottom with any kind of clear conscious...
Trends, Patterns and Fibs -
Trend - Down...Obviously BUT we are going to do something just a little bit different here.
Our falling wedge will serve as our entry and local confirmation of bullish bias.
We are also going to use our previous bottom as our setup play, even tho, it's not the bottom...don't worry - just follow along
So first we mark our High to Low Fib - our first target overall is the 236 retrace from ATH using local low as our anchor 2
3816 - TARGET
Let us zoom in.
What we are going to do is take the major reversal candle. Basically, the candle that put the breaks on this trend.
06-26-19 - 2243 LOW
Now we swing to the 4H Chart
So we can clearly see our previous Daily measurements for the patterns don't make any sense on the 4H - Not a good translation - so we need to clean them up to respect the 4H candles because this is where we take entry - not the Daily.
We can see we are also at a perfect time as we have already broke out of our falling wedge to the northside and are ReTESTING as we speak.
I get it - It looks terrible - well, that's because there is a lot going on.
So, normally we would take the major swing fail from the local high that is reversing trend...BUT we happen to have a pretty good looking pattern and I'll take that in confluence any-day.
So, we clear the fail - we get a double retest, we are good - price then pushes out of our pattern, retest - support found, we are good, so far.
Next the Long trade to the orange box is for the traders who take medication to survive...not for the faint of heart and highly risky - that being our aggressive entry at pattern.
Clearing the resistance at the orange box and closing above on the hourly gives us the green light for step two.
Long to the local high. Now this is not a profit target but more of a test the waters. You are free to take profits whenever you want. Do keep in mind that the RED boxes are major resistance and one who plays 15/30/60 minute charts can sell those zones, wait for pullbacks and buy back in again. For those that don't want to intraday scalp trade, just let it ride as the resistance is high but price should push if it's come this far.
The break from the local high - 3333 Should be CLEAN - If we fail just below then be prepared to wait a long time for us to form a BIG W just to get back to that level again. A CLEAN break gives way to our first green box which again, is not our target but it is a very important level.
GLOBAL 618 - This is where price is expected to take a hit, see some sell off, come back to 3333 for support before continuing on to our actually TP 1 - The 236 of local trend. = 3816
If the move is convincing then we shouldn't have too much issue reaching our TP2 which is the 1.618 of the move that brought us our new Bottom - if it remains the bottom - 4101 -
So, it's a lot of work but, it's a pretty badass trade.
The squiggles are just so you get an idea of what i'm talking about especially if you didn't feel like reading the accidental novel. Sorry.
I was scrolling thru on the 4H but we might as well take a ride on the Weekly to get an idea of what this pair is up to this summer...
From a Macro perspective - this coin has literally just been trading in a range for 80 Weeks with one failed breakout attempt to the upside.
Strange right?
Volume is about what we would expect from the rise up during the breakout and the since fallen volume during the decline - showing weakness for continuation to the downside.
The ORANGE box is there to represent the area of interest in which price failed on the weekly to close into or above and instead was rejected and price inevitably reversed.
DAILY -
The Daily gives up better perspective at the moves up.
Not including the initial move from the Downside to the creation of the Resistance Zone, there were 4 Moves.
2 of which went from bottom to top of range - 173% and 191% respectively while the other two were from retrace support zones after the last attempt failed - 93% and of course the one that broke the rules - 216%.
Using a Trend Based Fib Extension with is slightly different from a regular fib with extensions because Anchors 1 and 3 can be mis aligned we get something Very interesting. More or less a perfect 1.618 right to the top of this ATH move based off of a previous support and a repeatable pattern thru range from previous price action.
interesting indeed.
With this knowledge - using the 2056 low as our anchor one to watch the fall for support changes things a little bit, instead of using the traditional swing low from the move to the high.
So let's take a closer look at the drop.
The fall from range high that created the swing low to the high was 50.43%
ATH to local low is a drawdown of 77.76%
BUT ATH to the LOW before the range move = 78.13% and it took 221 days to get to the ATH from there with only 86 days for our current low... - These are just numbers, to which some of them are really fascinating...
Moving on...
1.7% Away from a Dbl Bot - In my opinion - less than 2% is good for me.
BUT - LOOK at where our Local bottom is... 2091 - Just ONE SATOSHI above our Global 786 (Global being ATL - ATH
So awhile back I located an area I considered High Risk as there was nothing really indicating reversal. We have historical support but that's really catching a knife with no consideration of confirmation...
It ended up being a very high risk but profitable trade. Don't develop bad habits...
The trade went 48% and the top was somewhat predetermined but we are getting off track here, the point is we gave it all back. Painted a local Dbl Bot, found temp support and LOST that too.
The point is THIS... Now We HAVE A DOUBLE BOTTOM and the confluence from the Global 786 for Support. The reaction however is lackluster...
So, the million dollar question - did we find bottom?
If BTC was in a range for 30+ days then I would say that we likely found an area where some money can be made. A very simple an obvious stop 1 to 2% below our global 786 and it becomes less risky...
HOWEVER - this is a BTC trade pair and not a USDT trade and BTC just printed an $850 only but a few hours ago....so, I cannot recommend this is the bottom with any kind of clear conscious...
Trends, Patterns and Fibs -
Trend - Down...Obviously BUT we are going to do something just a little bit different here.
Our falling wedge will serve as our entry and local confirmation of bullish bias.
We are also going to use our previous bottom as our setup play, even tho, it's not the bottom...don't worry - just follow along
So first we mark our High to Low Fib - our first target overall is the 236 retrace from ATH using local low as our anchor 2
3816 - TARGET
Let us zoom in.
What we are going to do is take the major reversal candle. Basically, the candle that put the breaks on this trend.
06-26-19 - 2243 LOW
Now we swing to the 4H Chart
So we can clearly see our previous Daily measurements for the patterns don't make any sense on the 4H - Not a good translation - so we need to clean them up to respect the 4H candles because this is where we take entry - not the Daily.
We can see we are also at a perfect time as we have already broke out of our falling wedge to the northside and are ReTESTING as we speak.
I get it - It looks terrible - well, that's because there is a lot going on.
So, normally we would take the major swing fail from the local high that is reversing trend...BUT we happen to have a pretty good looking pattern and I'll take that in confluence any-day.
So, we clear the fail - we get a double retest, we are good - price then pushes out of our pattern, retest - support found, we are good, so far.
Next the Long trade to the orange box is for the traders who take medication to survive...not for the faint of heart and highly risky - that being our aggressive entry at pattern.
Clearing the resistance at the orange box and closing above on the hourly gives us the green light for step two.
Long to the local high. Now this is not a profit target but more of a test the waters. You are free to take profits whenever you want. Do keep in mind that the RED boxes are major resistance and one who plays 15/30/60 minute charts can sell those zones, wait for pullbacks and buy back in again. For those that don't want to intraday scalp trade, just let it ride as the resistance is high but price should push if it's come this far.
The break from the local high - 3333 Should be CLEAN - If we fail just below then be prepared to wait a long time for us to form a BIG W just to get back to that level again. A CLEAN break gives way to our first green box which again, is not our target but it is a very important level.
GLOBAL 618 - This is where price is expected to take a hit, see some sell off, come back to 3333 for support before continuing on to our actually TP 1 - The 236 of local trend. = 3816
If the move is convincing then we shouldn't have too much issue reaching our TP2 which is the 1.618 of the move that brought us our new Bottom - if it remains the bottom - 4101 -
So, it's a lot of work but, it's a pretty badass trade.
The squiggles are just so you get an idea of what i'm talking about especially if you didn't feel like reading the accidental novel. Sorry.
Comment:
This also shows the Intial trend Flip from R to S in Yellow as well as the break with retest from pattern as well as two more swing fail flips
Enjoy.