Considering the weekly movements of BABA, there is great harmony in the timing of the major tops and bottoms. The time difference between the two main bottoms (Sept 2015 and Dec 2018) has been modeled and repeated to have a major bottom of March 202. In addition, considering the major tops dates of BABA, we can see that the recent bottom has been felt on the 2.00 ratio, which can be used as a signal for the prediction of the next top using the 2.618 Fibonacci ratios. Using both the mentioned time series analysis, we will have a TRZ (time target) somewhere between March and June 2024.
With the purpose of finding PRZ (price target), I have checked the Elliot Wave beside the main historical Support lines of BABA. As we can see below, the ending wave of Elliot correction waves (E) has touched one of the most important supports of BABA ($78.4 zone), which makes us have a PRZ of $350 zone, using Fibonacci expansion ratios.
However, we need to look at lower timeframes to find the trigger to buy. The main chart that I have published here is the daily version of BABA, which is moving in a downward regression channel. As long as the channel is valid, downward movements of BABA would not be finished. However, BABA has broken one of its most important Resistances (zone of $110.1), which it is expected to act as a Support in future movements. There are two potential triggers for buying BABA, which is summarized as follows:
1. The price retouches the broken support line ($78.4 zone) but does not break it down:
In this scenario, we will wait till the price breaks the downward trend line, and using the stop loss under the $78.4 zone, we can buy BABA with the mentioned PRZ and TRZ as our targets.
2. The price goes up and breaks the $132.6 zone:
In this scenario, the price will have a pullback to either $110.1 or the broken $132.6, and we can buy in the pullback with the mentioned PRZ and TRZ as our targets.
With the purpose of finding PRZ (price target), I have checked the Elliot Wave beside the main historical Support lines of BABA. As we can see below, the ending wave of Elliot correction waves (E) has touched one of the most important supports of BABA ($78.4 zone), which makes us have a PRZ of $350 zone, using Fibonacci expansion ratios.
However, we need to look at lower timeframes to find the trigger to buy. The main chart that I have published here is the daily version of BABA, which is moving in a downward regression channel. As long as the channel is valid, downward movements of BABA would not be finished. However, BABA has broken one of its most important Resistances (zone of $110.1), which it is expected to act as a Support in future movements. There are two potential triggers for buying BABA, which is summarized as follows:
1. The price retouches the broken support line ($78.4 zone) but does not break it down:
In this scenario, we will wait till the price breaks the downward trend line, and using the stop loss under the $78.4 zone, we can buy BABA with the mentioned PRZ and TRZ as our targets.
2. The price goes up and breaks the $132.6 zone:
In this scenario, the price will have a pullback to either $110.1 or the broken $132.6, and we can buy in the pullback with the mentioned PRZ and TRZ as our targets.