Hello everyone, welcome back.
Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Also, don't forget to like and subscribe.
Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to keep the benchmark interest rate at 4.35% to monitor inflation trends. They mentioned that inflation remains at high levels. However, the market evaluated the RBA's stance as hawkish, despite recent signs of inflation easing. Meanwhile, in the United States, comments from Federal Reserve officials continue, with the possibility of interest rate cuts in March and May diminishing.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently dismissed the possibility of an interest rate cut in March in an interview with CBS.
The likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed in March is around 20%, while the likelihood of a rate cut in May is around 64%.
The Reserve Bank of Australia stated that inflation remains high, and they cannot rule out the possibility of resuming rate hikes based on future data, hinting at further rate hikes.
The ASX200 in Australia settled around the 7600 level.
Currently, the Australian dollar is trending upward, but it's experiencing pressure from its recent high. However, due to indications of further rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia and support on the chart, a short-term rebound is occurring. However, considering the overall trend, downward movement seems dominant, and two potential scenarios can be anticipated.
- First, after a short-term rebound, a medium to long-term decline towards the 0.62000 level after confirming resistance at the trendline.
- Second, breaking the trendline support and a mid-term decline towards the 0.62000 level.
There's not much difference in response compared to last week. However, since there are no significant catalysts for volatility this week, movements are expected next week following the U.S. inflation data. If there are significant changes due to variables, we will adjust our strategy accordingly.
Please share your personal opinions in the comments. Also, don't forget to like and subscribe.
Yesterday, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decided to keep the benchmark interest rate at 4.35% to monitor inflation trends. They mentioned that inflation remains at high levels. However, the market evaluated the RBA's stance as hawkish, despite recent signs of inflation easing. Meanwhile, in the United States, comments from Federal Reserve officials continue, with the possibility of interest rate cuts in March and May diminishing.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell recently dismissed the possibility of an interest rate cut in March in an interview with CBS.
The likelihood of a rate cut by the Fed in March is around 20%, while the likelihood of a rate cut in May is around 64%.
The Reserve Bank of Australia stated that inflation remains high, and they cannot rule out the possibility of resuming rate hikes based on future data, hinting at further rate hikes.
The ASX200 in Australia settled around the 7600 level.
Currently, the Australian dollar is trending upward, but it's experiencing pressure from its recent high. However, due to indications of further rate hikes from the Reserve Bank of Australia and support on the chart, a short-term rebound is occurring. However, considering the overall trend, downward movement seems dominant, and two potential scenarios can be anticipated.
- First, after a short-term rebound, a medium to long-term decline towards the 0.62000 level after confirming resistance at the trendline.
- Second, breaking the trendline support and a mid-term decline towards the 0.62000 level.
There's not much difference in response compared to last week. However, since there are no significant catalysts for volatility this week, movements are expected next week following the U.S. inflation data. If there are significant changes due to variables, we will adjust our strategy accordingly.