AUDUSD Potential Swing Sell: Mid-term to Monthly View
Here are a few facts about AUDUSD that have influenced the decision to sell- all the way to 0.62000, if all goes well...with a mid-term/near-term target of 0.65600.
1. Weekly TF:
-we have been bearish since we hit 0.71000 to the upside. We tapped into the weekly supply level hereon and have since gathered liquidity by tapping into the monthly highs then strongly dropped off to the most
recent lows recorded in the pair, around 0.65640.
-while for the last 8 weeks we have been in utter range and consolidation, last week recorded a solid bearish momentum candle that indicated that, while all the other weeks were strong in picking out liquidity with
clear wicks on the upside, last week was a solid drop that ended up creating a low at 0.65740 to close April at that level.
-this momentum candle is what this view is based on- that we're most likely to enter a sell season on the pair- after the 8 weeks of liquidity hunts and gathering orders.
In addition;
-when I look at history and support levels, we have not had a bullish swing from the current lows (say, 0.66000) since October, 1993.
-all recent price action shows that there have not been a support zone between 0.71000 and 0.62000 for the past couple of years.
-in my books, 0.62000 is the next logical level where price would find support- and it has been solid enough to produce the highest highs the pair has seen (back in 2011, 1.1000).
Lastly;
-prior momentum to the consolidation was strongly bearish.
That being the case, my bias is very much in favor of selling.
2. H4:
-we shifted structure in favor of the upside but it does seem we were chasing the weekly high at 0.67055, at which we responded with a rejection this morning.
-we happen to have this rejection registering as the third trend line rejection if we stitch together the last two major highs on this time frame. This trend line forms part of powerful confluence to support a sell at this level.
-the 61.8% fib happens to sit here as well (not a strong confluence in my criteria but it counts). NB: we rejected to the downside off this fib level, to the T!!
-we also happen to have broken to the downside of a powerful daily support trend line (25.04.23, 4am), which we have pushed back into this morning and are showing signs of rejection off it to the downside on the M15.
3. Midrange (H1/M15)
-we slipped right above the weekly high at 0.67055 then showed a slow-down as London opened. This was the trigger for me to enter.
-0.67000 institutional level a strong order level to dump from
I am holding this trade for the long term, willing to chance that we took out liquidity to favor a long-term drive south.
Near-term, I am aiming for the April and March lows, targeting 0.65600.
Note: these are just my views, not to be construed as financial advice. The market can go whichever way.
Happy pippin!
1. Weekly TF:
-we have been bearish since we hit 0.71000 to the upside. We tapped into the weekly supply level hereon and have since gathered liquidity by tapping into the monthly highs then strongly dropped off to the most
recent lows recorded in the pair, around 0.65640.
-while for the last 8 weeks we have been in utter range and consolidation, last week recorded a solid bearish momentum candle that indicated that, while all the other weeks were strong in picking out liquidity with
clear wicks on the upside, last week was a solid drop that ended up creating a low at 0.65740 to close April at that level.
-this momentum candle is what this view is based on- that we're most likely to enter a sell season on the pair- after the 8 weeks of liquidity hunts and gathering orders.
In addition;
-when I look at history and support levels, we have not had a bullish swing from the current lows (say, 0.66000) since October, 1993.
-all recent price action shows that there have not been a support zone between 0.71000 and 0.62000 for the past couple of years.
-in my books, 0.62000 is the next logical level where price would find support- and it has been solid enough to produce the highest highs the pair has seen (back in 2011, 1.1000).
Lastly;
-prior momentum to the consolidation was strongly bearish.
That being the case, my bias is very much in favor of selling.
2. H4:
-we shifted structure in favor of the upside but it does seem we were chasing the weekly high at 0.67055, at which we responded with a rejection this morning.
-we happen to have this rejection registering as the third trend line rejection if we stitch together the last two major highs on this time frame. This trend line forms part of powerful confluence to support a sell at this level.
-the 61.8% fib happens to sit here as well (not a strong confluence in my criteria but it counts). NB: we rejected to the downside off this fib level, to the T!!
-we also happen to have broken to the downside of a powerful daily support trend line (25.04.23, 4am), which we have pushed back into this morning and are showing signs of rejection off it to the downside on the M15.
3. Midrange (H1/M15)
-we slipped right above the weekly high at 0.67055 then showed a slow-down as London opened. This was the trigger for me to enter.
-0.67000 institutional level a strong order level to dump from
I am holding this trade for the long term, willing to chance that we took out liquidity to favor a long-term drive south.
Near-term, I am aiming for the April and March lows, targeting 0.65600.
Note: these are just my views, not to be construed as financial advice. The market can go whichever way.
Happy pippin!