AUD/USD - Trade #1

It's not extremely certain trade but it's certain enough for me to take it.
It give me good Expected Value.
The only thing is to risk small on this trade less than 1% something like 0.5 or 0.75.
Remember when we are not so certain we risk less and we add to our position as certainty arises.
Good Luck and I'll keep you updated. I personally have an open position.

Comment:

Bearish Facts:
1. The Correction is Complex still in place
2. It might be wave 4 of an impulse down which is great for us
3. W wave looks like 3-3-5 or if it's just a 5 wave then the setup is still valid
4. Even if the whole thing is a Diagonal, the market still needs to hit at least our first profit target.
5. The short Wave down after (Y) looks like a motive wave
6. The wave after it that goes up looks like a corrective one.
Bullish Facts:
1. Can't really ind any except if we have an expandig diagonal which will be a wave C of ZZ or a big wave 3. Which is rare but possible
2. The other bullish fact for not taking this trade is that the scenario is too complex and can't really be certain but because of the good RRR and all the bearish facts I personally like this trade

Comment:

The 200MA is there too which adds a little more certainty to the scenario.
I'm planning to add to my position as soon as the i see 1h close below the 8EMA especially if the candle is strong.

Comment:

So far so good I'm adding to the position 0.5% with a stop loss at 1.7590 expecting the momentum to carry down if in case it hits 1.7590 then i'm out with with 0.5% loss and still holding the previous position

Comment:

Adding 0.5% risk at 1.7570 with a SL of the entire position at 1.7590

Comment:

Put the Stop-Loss at 1.7590, if the price hits that level we don't need the position anymore.

Trade active:

WE can never be certain about the markets but my plan is:
SL @ 0.7590
Profit Target 1 @ 0.7510
Profit Target 2 @ 0.7460
Profit Target 3 @ 0.7400
Also the possibility to Cut from the position if anything turns bad.
And we are certainly adding as we see that the market is making us profits
Good Luck

Trade closed manually:

Okay my friends my decision right now is to close my position. I made a 1% profit out of it which is not much but the most important thing is that I'm protecting my capital
This is the point of this strategy being Tight when we are uncertain. And Aggressive when certain. This doesn't mean that the market won't go lower or hit our target it just means that the gap shows bullishness and the Daily candle is still above 9EMA. Remember we can always re-enter when the Certainty arises. Good Luck, Manage your risk well and make the best Decisions.

Comment:

New opportunity if the market reaches that level and falls we can enter and put our SL above it.

Comment:

Everything turned out like planned, like we could predict the future ^^. This is a great point for re-entry, remember it's not so certain but it has good Risk-Reward which makes it a good expected value bet. Good Luck.

Trade active:

S/L : to Break-Even @ 0.7565
T/P : to 0.7510
There is a possibility to go lower but as we hit that level we are not sure what is going to happen.
1. Cut half of it and hold the other half (It can work well but it's risky)
2. Close the position and wait for more certainty to re-enter. (This is my choice)
3. Use trailing stop (the most aggressive scenario, but I don't think it's smart)

Trade closed manually:

profit of 1.5%, I can hold it a little more but since it missed our target by a little bit,and there is a big news event in 15min, holding this will be a gamble, and we don't want that.. I know that i can re-enter whenever I want. So why not play it the smart way based on what we know for sure and not being controlled by FOMO and Greed. It was a great trade.