@phoe68, By long term I presume you mean a few days? There is still an overall downtrend and unless the price of Iron Ore recovers, AUD will stay weak. Therefore you're going against the trend now. Usually I see this retrace to the neckline or about your 0.236 line - which is where every one who traded the breakout have been taught to put their stop losses - and then Buy. It will take a while to get to the Sell point at 0.7500 and it will probably bounce of peaks and troughs 3 times so make a decision to close and reopen - I am going to try to hold a buy open until 0.7500 and then Sell. Legal bumf: This is purely my view and to be taken with a pinch of salt.
@phoe68, 1 YEAR!! Wow, so much can happen in that time. There are 3 more US interest rates due, one in the UK, There is the general election in the UK in June. German election towards the end of the year. Not forgetting Trump, North Korea, the economy issues in China which will weaken the demand of coal and iron ore from Australia.... Look at Forex futures a year from now to see what others are thinking https://uk.investing.com/currencies/aud-usd-forward-rates.. Medium term, I expect China to demand less from Australia so a bear trend at least until China sorts itself out.