Potential swing trade long on AUD/USD 1-hour chart
AUD/USD pulled back for a second day on Monday thanks to weak data from China and rising geopolitical tensions as Russia have backed to of a key gain deal. Support was found around the weekly pivot point, RBA ‘pause’ high and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, and the subsequent rally suggests a swing low is in place.
The RBA minutes are due in ~2 hours, and we’d welcome any pullback towards 68c which could help improve the potential reward to risk ratio for longs. Of course, if the minutes are as dovish as hoped then AUD runs the risk of breaking beneath yesterday’s low and invalidating the near-term bullish bias.
But we suspect the minutes may be a little more hawkish than liked, which leaves the potential for it to pop higher. We have a target near the upper 1-day implied volatility band around 0.6850.
The RBA minutes are due in ~2 hours, and we’d welcome any pullback towards 68c which could help improve the potential reward to risk ratio for longs. Of course, if the minutes are as dovish as hoped then AUD runs the risk of breaking beneath yesterday’s low and invalidating the near-term bullish bias.
But we suspect the minutes may be a little more hawkish than liked, which leaves the potential for it to pop higher. We have a target near the upper 1-day implied volatility band around 0.6850.
Trade closed manually:
Right direction, but the move lacked sufficient bullish momentum to reach the initial upside target.