he AUD/JPY pair has been in a strong uptrend since late March 2023, rising from 86.065 to 97.65 as of November 7, 2023¹. However, there are some signs that the bullish momentum is losing steam and a reversal may be imminent.
First, the pair is approaching a major resistance zone around 98.00, which has acted as a turning point several times in the past². This level coincides with the upper boundary of an ascending channel that has been containing the price action since June 2023². A rejection from this area could trigger a sharp sell-off towards the lower boundary of the channel or even below it.
Second, the pair is showing some bearish divergence on the daily RSI, which indicates that the buyers are losing strength as the price makes higher highs². The RSI is also in the overbought territory, which suggests that the pair is due for a correction².
Third, the pair has formed a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern on the weekly chart, which signals a potential reversal of the uptrend³. The pattern consists of a small green candle followed by a larger red candle that completely engulfs the previous one³. This shows that the sellers have taken control of the market and are ready to push the price lower.
Therefore, based on these technical factors, I expect the AUD/JPY pair to decline in the near future. A break below the 96.50 support level could confirm the bearish scenario and open the way for further losses towards the 94.00 or 92.00 levels. However, if the pair manages to break above the 98.00 resistance level, the bullish trend could resume and target the 100.00 psychological level.
Source: Conversation with Bing, 10/11/2023
(1) 1.00 AUD is equal to 96.31 JPY. bing.com/search?q=audjpy+c...
(2) AUD JPY Chart – Australian Dollar to Yen Rate — TradingView. www.tradingview.com/symbols/AUDJPY/.
(3) AUD JPY Chart - Investing.com. www.investing.com/cu...ncies/aud-jpy-chart.
(4) Australian Dollar to Japanese Yen Exchange Rate Chart | Xe. www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=AUD&a...
(5) AUD to JPY Exchange Rate - Myfxbook.com. www.myfxbook.com/for...t/currencies/AUDJPY.
(6) AUD to JPY Exchange Rate - Bloomberg.com. www.bloomberg.com/quote/AUDJPY:CUR.
First, the pair is approaching a major resistance zone around 98.00, which has acted as a turning point several times in the past². This level coincides with the upper boundary of an ascending channel that has been containing the price action since June 2023². A rejection from this area could trigger a sharp sell-off towards the lower boundary of the channel or even below it.
Second, the pair is showing some bearish divergence on the daily RSI, which indicates that the buyers are losing strength as the price makes higher highs². The RSI is also in the overbought territory, which suggests that the pair is due for a correction².
Third, the pair has formed a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern on the weekly chart, which signals a potential reversal of the uptrend³. The pattern consists of a small green candle followed by a larger red candle that completely engulfs the previous one³. This shows that the sellers have taken control of the market and are ready to push the price lower.
Therefore, based on these technical factors, I expect the AUD/JPY pair to decline in the near future. A break below the 96.50 support level could confirm the bearish scenario and open the way for further losses towards the 94.00 or 92.00 levels. However, if the pair manages to break above the 98.00 resistance level, the bullish trend could resume and target the 100.00 psychological level.
Source: Conversation with Bing, 10/11/2023
(1) 1.00 AUD is equal to 96.31 JPY. bing.com/search?q=audjpy+c...
(2) AUD JPY Chart – Australian Dollar to Yen Rate — TradingView. www.tradingview.com/symbols/AUDJPY/.
(3) AUD JPY Chart - Investing.com. www.investing.com/cu...ncies/aud-jpy-chart.
(4) Australian Dollar to Japanese Yen Exchange Rate Chart | Xe. www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=AUD&a...
(5) AUD to JPY Exchange Rate - Myfxbook.com. www.myfxbook.com/for...t/currencies/AUDJPY.
(6) AUD to JPY Exchange Rate - Bloomberg.com. www.bloomberg.com/quote/AUDJPY:CUR.