If we were to look on the higher timeframe on the 4hr you will see this pair has been for some time now. We have witnessed a break of this trend and a nice impulsive move down. After the push down we saw a very strong impulsive move back up showing us a reversal. This is what peaked our interest. After we could see pushing up we added a fib retracement in and waited for price to continue up.
You can see price pushed up just shy of the 76.80% and retested this prior and then a candle followed shortly after this. For me, this is enough confluence to say this pair should continue down to our overall target. Stops just above the previous wick in case price does continue up which gives us a lovely risk reward on this on this setup.