AUDCAD with a potential drop of hundreds of pips

Even though AUDCAD has been rising sharply since early October, we are still in a downtrend in the daily and weekly charts (below the 200 SMA). This rise could be Wave 4 (green) which is facing strong resistance at the Wave 1 level.

If this wave count is right, we could have a drop of hundreds of pips (500+) during November/December, with a tight stop loss. Risk/reward is very good, and even if the whole fall isn't confirmed, we should at least have a retracement of 100-200 pips.

Other supporting factors:
- RSI is showing divergence on the 4H chart
- Oil has fallen drastically since early October, and is way oversold. We should have a short-term upwards retracement on Oil prices, with should offer CAD some breath.

A solid break above current levels would invalidate this count.