victorko

WHAT IS AMAZONS TRUE VALUE? IS IT READY TO DECLINE?

NASDAQ:AMZN   Amazon.com
Amazon has had a great run. Its earnings are constantly growing. But, is it worth 1943 per share? Doing a DCF valuation of AMZN using 32% growth sliding down to 7.5% after year 15, I get a value of only 1609 per share. I think AMZN will trade inside of a rectangle with upper and lower bounds as shown. If your a buyer, wait till it hits the lower rectangle line at about 1340. This will represent good value for a buyer. I probably wouldn't sell AMZN, wait for it to decline and then buy. AMZN wont grow at high rates for ever, its earnings growth will start tapering down from now on as competition and the natural maturing of internet sales occurs. AMZN's later form 10Q shows its earnings didn't increase compared to the previous Mar 19 quarter hinting at lower growth rates to come. In 15 to 20 years time I'd expect normal growth rates of 5.5% pa to occur with AMZN, it will become just another retailer.
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