victorko

victorko

After Ethereum's drop and recovery today, a massive hanging man candle formation has formed. This is a strong indication of an imminent collapse in Ethereum. Short positions anywhere above 4100 can be traded. I think cryptocurrencies in general will enter another bear market. A double top has formed in Ethereum and Bitcoin too. Both these chart patterns are...

victorko

The S&P 500 index has hit a lot of buy stops propelling it higher in recent days. However, is it just forming a head and shoulders pattern on the right shoulder? If you believe this market is overbought (refer stochastic) and overvalued (high PE), then, could a head and shoulders pattern present an ideal short position? You could sell now at the top of the...

victorko

The S&P500 index is currently in a bear flag. Indecision and uncertainty about Trump's trade war and overvaluation of US equities has caused this pattern to emerge. We are at the top of the bear flag, an ideal time to short or buy put options on the SPY or S&P500 futures. Recent optimism about a resolution to the trade war is unfounded. I don't think Trump and...

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Ethereum is looking weak on the chart. Declining volume and no interest in the altcoin. Bitcoin is also looking like it could tumble also. The technicals paint a weak picture with RSI, ROC and MACD all looking bearish. ETH/BTC pair is in steep decline indicating Ether is weak compared to Bitcoin. I think Bitcoin and Ether will fall together from here. Ether...

victorko

The S&P 500 index may tick up a bit from here as Trump has tweeted that he's going to delay tariffs until Dec 19. However, the additional tariffs will still be applied to Chinese imports. We are in a reaction to the main downtrend. I think the market will climb up to fib retracement 0.764 and hit resistance at the prior low of the uptrend. Sell short at about...

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Square SQ is so high and overvalued, it is ready for a serious short. SQ DCF valuation assuming growth rates of 50% sliding down to 7.5% over 10 year yields a value per share of $45. This assumes SQ will get a large portion of the world's payment system. However, there are many competitors to SQ - VISA, MasterCard and PayPal for example. I don't think SQ will...

victorko

Godaddy is way overvalued. Using DCF valuation, I can only get a value of $17.50 for GDDY. GDDY has just announced its quarterly earnings, another loss of -0.07 per share. Its sales are growing at 13% per year but it is failing to convert it to positive earnings. I think this stock is going to tank big time. In overnight trading, it dropped to $70 but bounced...

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The FTSE100 index is selling at a P/E of 17.2. This is quite high in a low interest rate, low growth scenario. The UK is in a mess, with Brexit problems, neighboring countries teetering on recession and Boris taking over the leadership. A DCF valuation of the FTSE100 using 3.2% growth, 8.6% discount rate it shows the index is 11% overvalued. I think the German...

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The German Dax 30 index is currently fully valued ripe for a correction. On a DCF valuation, it is 100% fully valued using 3.8% growth and 8.6% discount rate. With interest rates at zero and low inflation, this index is very expensive. The Dax broke through the upper trend line recently, I think this is a bull trap. With American markets heading south, so too...

victorko

Amazon has had a great run. Its earnings are constantly growing. But, is it worth 1943 per share? Doing a DCF valuation of AMZN using 32% growth sliding down to 7.5% after year 15, I get a value of only 1609 per share. I think AMZN will trade inside of a rectangle with upper and lower bounds as shown. If your a buyer, wait till it hits the lower rectangle...

victorko

The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA is selling for a P/E of 19.3. This is quite high historically. Everyone is buying the hype of lower interest rates boosting stocks. Well, in 2000 and 2007 rates were falling with a falling stock market. Cutting rates is a sign somethings wrong. Anyway, the first rate cut scenario is factored in by now, I don't expect a...

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Ethereum has dropped quite a bit recently. It has rebounded off the trend line but has struck resistance at 231. The technicals are pointing down with RSI, ROC and MACD all heading down. The inventer of ethereum has proposed a software patch from bitcoin cash to speed up ethereum processing. I think this is a desperate attempt to fix ethereum. Also, Binance...

victorko

Apple at 207 is fully valued according to a DCF valuation, no room to move higher into overvalued territory. Apple's iPhone sales are in decline from their latest form 10Q and the services business is growing slowly. I think the trade war with China has affected Apple's earnings and growth, also competition from Samsung and other cheaper phones. The iPhone is...

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Tesla has rebounded off its lows and is now coming up to major resistance as shown. Some investors believe the small increase in car production last quarter is something to be bullish about. However consider this: market cap/cars sold TSLA 121416, General Motors 6475, Ford 6887 Using the measure market cap/cars sold, TSLA is clearly way, way...

victorko

The Australian AUS200 or XJO index (ASX S&P 200 index) is fully valued at its 100% DCF value using 3.5% growth, 8.2% discount rate. The earnings for this index are less than at the top of 2007. Its P/E ratio is overvalued at 18. Australia's construction industry is in rapid decline and also its housing markets. Short term interest rates are in decline as...

victorko

UBER is dropping out of a rising wedge pattern. UBER lost $1 billion last quarter and is projected to continue making huge losses in coming quarters. Ride sharing is a competitive venture. In the US there is Lyft and others competing against it. Internationally there is Ola competing. On the delivery business there is Grubhub and Deliveroo competing against...

victorko

Bitcoin has formed a double top and the RSI, ROC and MACD are all topping out and pointing down. The US government has expressed their distaste for Facebook's Libra and Trump is against cryptocurrencies. Ethereum is weaker than bitcoin, both ether and bitcoin are ripe for shorting. Bitcoin and ether could halve from here, a good short strategy. World stock...

victorko

The Nasdaq market is looking to fall rapidly through a rising wedge pattern. The NAS100 P/E ratio is 25 - way, way overvalued. The Nasdaq market has many stocks with sky high P/E ratios over 100 like GDDY, SQ. UBER and TSLA haven't made any profit yet and are trading at sky high valuations. The NAS100 could fall 20% from here with the S&P500. The RSI, ROC and...