Apes, Mafia, who plays better? who has grater chance of success?
Sapiens came to dominate the world because it is the only animal that can cooperate flexibly in large numbers. Prehistoric Sapiens was a key cause of the extinction of other human species such as the Neanderthals, along with numerous other megafauna.
Evolution is a change in the characteristics of living things over time. As described by Darwin, evolution occurs by a process called natural selection.
Natural selection is the process through which populations of living organisms adapt and change. ... Through this process of natural selection, favorable traits are transmitted through generations. Natural selection can lead to speciation, where one species gives rise to a new and distinctly different species.
Now my question is:
Can 10 million apes defeat a small number of the elite sapience equipped with AI by behaving like apes?
The best way to answer this question is to learn to play "Mafia"
Mafia, also known as Werewolf, is a social deduction game, created by Dimitry Davidoff in 1986. The game models a conflict between two groups: an informed minority (the Mafiosi or the werewolves), and an uninformed majority (the villagers). At the start of the game, each player is secretly assigned a role affiliated with one of these teams. The game has two alternating phases: first, a night role, during which those with night killing powers may covertly kill other players, and second, a day role, in which surviving players debate the identities of players and vote to eliminate a suspect. The game continues until a faction achieves its win condition; for the village, this usually means eliminating the evil minority, while for the minority this usually means reaching numerical parity with the village and eliminating any rival evil groups.
Night
All players close their eyes. The moderator then instructs all werewolves to open their eyes and acknowledge their accomplices. The werewolves pick a "victim" by silently gesturing to indicate their target and to show unanimity then close their eyes again.
A similar process occurs for other roles with nightly actions. In the case of the seer, the moderator may indicate the target's innocence or guilt by using gestures such as nodding or head shaking.
Werewolves discussing whom to kill during the night
The night may be accompanied by players tapping gently to mask sounds made by gesture.
Day
During the "day" phase, players vote on whom to eliminate
The moderator instructs players to open their eyes and announces who "died" the previous night. Discussion ensues among the living players. At any point, a player may accuse someone of being a werewolf and prompt others to vote to eliminate them. If over half of the players do so, the accused person is eliminated and night begins. Otherwise, the phase continues until elimination occurs.
According to some rules, the role of dead players is revealed; according to others, it is not. In both cases, dead players are not permitted to attempt to influence the remainder of the game.
Because players have more freedom to deliberate, days tend to be longer than nights.
Game theory
Mathematical study
Mafia is a complicated game to model, so most analyses of optimal play have assumed both (a) that there are only townsfolk and Mafiosi and (b) that the townsfolk never have a probability of identifying the Mafia that is better than chance. Early treatment of the game concentrated on simulation, while more recent studies have tried to derive closed-form equilibrium solutions for perfect play.
In 2006, the computer scientists Braverman, Etesami, and Mossel proved that without detectives and with perfect players the randomized strategy is optimal for both citizens and mafia. When there is a large enough number of players to give both groups a similar probability of winning, they showed that the initial number of Mafiosi m needs to be proportional to the square root of the total number of players P, that is With a simulation, they confirmed that 50 Mafiosi would have almost a 50% chance to win among 10,000.
I believe the WSB scheme could be designed based on this game theory!
I have played many Mafia game many times, and whoever who played this game many times know that Mafias has a higher chance of success!
According to a 2021 article:
A single detective changes the qualitative behavior of the game dramatically..!
Play smart..!
Listen to the detective..!
Reference:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mafia_(party_game)
https://www.kqed.org/pop/10178/how-to-play-mafia-an-in-depth-guide-to-the-perfect-holiday-game
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/2131320_Mafia_A_Theoretical_Study_of_Players_and_Coalitions_in_a_Partial_Information_Environment
Evolution is a change in the characteristics of living things over time. As described by Darwin, evolution occurs by a process called natural selection.
Natural selection is the process through which populations of living organisms adapt and change. ... Through this process of natural selection, favorable traits are transmitted through generations. Natural selection can lead to speciation, where one species gives rise to a new and distinctly different species.
Now my question is:
Can 10 million apes defeat a small number of the elite sapience equipped with AI by behaving like apes?
The best way to answer this question is to learn to play "Mafia"
Mafia, also known as Werewolf, is a social deduction game, created by Dimitry Davidoff in 1986. The game models a conflict between two groups: an informed minority (the Mafiosi or the werewolves), and an uninformed majority (the villagers). At the start of the game, each player is secretly assigned a role affiliated with one of these teams. The game has two alternating phases: first, a night role, during which those with night killing powers may covertly kill other players, and second, a day role, in which surviving players debate the identities of players and vote to eliminate a suspect. The game continues until a faction achieves its win condition; for the village, this usually means eliminating the evil minority, while for the minority this usually means reaching numerical parity with the village and eliminating any rival evil groups.
Night
All players close their eyes. The moderator then instructs all werewolves to open their eyes and acknowledge their accomplices. The werewolves pick a "victim" by silently gesturing to indicate their target and to show unanimity then close their eyes again.
A similar process occurs for other roles with nightly actions. In the case of the seer, the moderator may indicate the target's innocence or guilt by using gestures such as nodding or head shaking.
Werewolves discussing whom to kill during the night
The night may be accompanied by players tapping gently to mask sounds made by gesture.
Day
During the "day" phase, players vote on whom to eliminate
The moderator instructs players to open their eyes and announces who "died" the previous night. Discussion ensues among the living players. At any point, a player may accuse someone of being a werewolf and prompt others to vote to eliminate them. If over half of the players do so, the accused person is eliminated and night begins. Otherwise, the phase continues until elimination occurs.
According to some rules, the role of dead players is revealed; according to others, it is not. In both cases, dead players are not permitted to attempt to influence the remainder of the game.
Because players have more freedom to deliberate, days tend to be longer than nights.
Game theory
Mathematical study
Mafia is a complicated game to model, so most analyses of optimal play have assumed both (a) that there are only townsfolk and Mafiosi and (b) that the townsfolk never have a probability of identifying the Mafia that is better than chance. Early treatment of the game concentrated on simulation, while more recent studies have tried to derive closed-form equilibrium solutions for perfect play.
In 2006, the computer scientists Braverman, Etesami, and Mossel proved that without detectives and with perfect players the randomized strategy is optimal for both citizens and mafia. When there is a large enough number of players to give both groups a similar probability of winning, they showed that the initial number of Mafiosi m needs to be proportional to the square root of the total number of players P, that is With a simulation, they confirmed that 50 Mafiosi would have almost a 50% chance to win among 10,000.
I believe the WSB scheme could be designed based on this game theory!
I have played many Mafia game many times, and whoever who played this game many times know that Mafias has a higher chance of success!
According to a 2021 article:
A single detective changes the qualitative behavior of the game dramatically..!
Play smart..!
Listen to the detective..!
Reference:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mafia_(party_game)
https://www.kqed.org/pop/10178/how-to-play-mafia-an-in-depth-guide-to-the-perfect-holiday-game
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/2131320_Mafia_A_Theoretical_Study_of_Players_and_Coalitions_in_a_Partial_Information_Environment
Comment:
