Cautiously Long multi timeframe analysis!
In the Mid Term Group of timeframes (5d 6d 9d 12d)
The Green EMA is higher than the Energy in all TFs in the group indicating bullish sentiment. A have a new 12 day candle as of a day ago, despite a deep wick up and down we opened and closed the last 12 day candle at around the Aqua upper Bollinger Band. With the Green EMA higher than the Energy, even though the Energy was below 50 the overall sentiment was bullish during a period of downward pressure. It is important to note that the Red RSI closed making contact with the Green EMA as it rose indicating a possible resumption of upward pressure. The Energy as a result has just about made it above 50 and is currently sitting at 51.5. We can see signs of the Red RSI and Blue LSMA both turning up.
In the 9d, after losing support of the Aqua upper BB at the beginning of April, we have managed to establish support at the White upper BB.
In the Near Term Group of timeframes (1d 2d 3d 4d)
The Green EMA is higher than the Energy in all but the daily, indicating bullish sentiment. In the daily, after closing on 24/05 with the Red RSI closing making contact with the Green EMA as it rose, the Energy as expected crossed above 50 on the next candle indicating upward pressure, the Red RSI has turned back up and the Blue LSMA is levelling off, the Green EMA is rising strongly with the Energy which is a good sign and suggests we have a good chance of it getting above the Energy. If the Blue LSMA can turn back up at its current level around 50 we stand a good chance of seeing the Bollinger Bands begin to expand. If the Red RSI can cross above 50 and the Blue LSMA remain above 50, we have a good chance of re-establishing the Bollinger Band basis as support. If the Red RSI can cross above 50 and cross above the Blue LSMA as the Blue LSMA turns back up, we also have a chance to see the price action begin to establish itself between the Aqua/Orange upper BBs.
Also it is important to note that, yesterday the Energy in the daily won the downward pressure race against the Red RSI in the 2d.
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the daily a downward pressure race was triggered. In order for upward pressure to resume, we first needed to see the Energy in the daily CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 2d CROSSED below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green EMA higher than the Energy in at least the three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered.
Currently the Energy in the 12h is higher than the Green EMA, however the Green EMA in the 90, 3h & 6h is higher than the Energy. So we have not yet seen a conclusive victory until the Green EMA can get higher than the Energy in the 12h. But it is looking promising for now and we have met most of the prerequisits for confirmation.
Looking at the 2d, the Green EMA has turned back up and is getting close to level 50 and is beginning to turn back up in the 3d too. We need to see the Red RSI turn back up too.
Short Term Group of TFs (90 3h 6h 12h)
The Green EMA is higher than the Energy in all but the 12h indicating bullish sentiment.
The Red RSI in the 12h is getting close to level 50, we need the Red RSI to CROSS above 50 in the 12h before the Energy CLOSES below 50 in the 6h to confirm a continuation of upward pressure in this group of timeframes. This will be the first of our upward pressure races. If the Red RSI wins the race we will then look to see if the Red RSI in the daily can CROSS above 50 before the Energy in the 12h CLOSES below 50. Etc etc. By following these upward pressure races we can see upward pressure propagate up through the timeframes as long as the Red RSI continues to win.
In the 90m the Red RSI crossed bullish above the Blue LSMA and the Blue LSMA changed direction to the upside at around level 50, as a result the Bollinger Bands began to expand, because we are in a period of local upward pressure and the Red RSI and Blue LSMA are both significantly above 50, the price action has established itself between the Aqua/Orange upper BBs. We have to be cautious as the Red RSI has made contact with the Green EMA as it falls, it has not closed like this yet, we are about half way through this current 90m candle, if we do close with the Red RSI making contact with the Green EMA as it falls in 45m approx, we are likely to see the Energy fall below 50 indicating a period of downward pressure, however, this may well be breif based on what I am seeing in the Energy levels of higher timeframes.
In the Immediate Term group of timeframes ( 6 12 23 45)
The Green EMA is higher than the energy in all TFs in the group, indicating bullish sentiment. We are experiencing downward pressure in this group currently but overall sentiment is bullish.
In summary:
There are plenty of bullish signs and we have seen a move to upward pressure. However, resumption to sustained upward pressure has not yet been confirmed. This is a promising long position but should be monitored with caution regularly from the Immediate group upwards.
As mentioned in previous publications, these markets can change with very little notice. These changes initially manifest themselves in the lower timeframes and propagate up through the timeframes. Nothing is set in stone. Unless you are day trading, you cannot benefit from these early warning signals.
As always - this is not financial advice but just my view of current market dynamics.
One has to be aware that analyses are done on the basis of what the indicators are saying at the time and things can change. It is important to always monitor the scalping group of timeframes as we will see changes propagate up from there.
If you got value from this analysis, please hit the like button
Trade safe
aBL
The Green EMA is higher than the Energy in all TFs in the group indicating bullish sentiment. A have a new 12 day candle as of a day ago, despite a deep wick up and down we opened and closed the last 12 day candle at around the Aqua upper Bollinger Band. With the Green EMA higher than the Energy, even though the Energy was below 50 the overall sentiment was bullish during a period of downward pressure. It is important to note that the Red RSI closed making contact with the Green EMA as it rose indicating a possible resumption of upward pressure. The Energy as a result has just about made it above 50 and is currently sitting at 51.5. We can see signs of the Red RSI and Blue LSMA both turning up.
In the 9d, after losing support of the Aqua upper BB at the beginning of April, we have managed to establish support at the White upper BB.
In the Near Term Group of timeframes (1d 2d 3d 4d)
The Green EMA is higher than the Energy in all but the daily, indicating bullish sentiment. In the daily, after closing on 24/05 with the Red RSI closing making contact with the Green EMA as it rose, the Energy as expected crossed above 50 on the next candle indicating upward pressure, the Red RSI has turned back up and the Blue LSMA is levelling off, the Green EMA is rising strongly with the Energy which is a good sign and suggests we have a good chance of it getting above the Energy. If the Blue LSMA can turn back up at its current level around 50 we stand a good chance of seeing the Bollinger Bands begin to expand. If the Red RSI can cross above 50 and the Blue LSMA remain above 50, we have a good chance of re-establishing the Bollinger Band basis as support. If the Red RSI can cross above 50 and cross above the Blue LSMA as the Blue LSMA turns back up, we also have a chance to see the price action begin to establish itself between the Aqua/Orange upper BBs.
Also it is important to note that, yesterday the Energy in the daily won the downward pressure race against the Red RSI in the 2d.
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the daily a downward pressure race was triggered. In order for upward pressure to resume, we first needed to see the Energy in the daily CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 2d CROSSED below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green EMA higher than the Energy in at least the three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered.
Currently the Energy in the 12h is higher than the Green EMA, however the Green EMA in the 90, 3h & 6h is higher than the Energy. So we have not yet seen a conclusive victory until the Green EMA can get higher than the Energy in the 12h. But it is looking promising for now and we have met most of the prerequisits for confirmation.
Looking at the 2d, the Green EMA has turned back up and is getting close to level 50 and is beginning to turn back up in the 3d too. We need to see the Red RSI turn back up too.
Short Term Group of TFs (90 3h 6h 12h)
The Green EMA is higher than the Energy in all but the 12h indicating bullish sentiment.
The Red RSI in the 12h is getting close to level 50, we need the Red RSI to CROSS above 50 in the 12h before the Energy CLOSES below 50 in the 6h to confirm a continuation of upward pressure in this group of timeframes. This will be the first of our upward pressure races. If the Red RSI wins the race we will then look to see if the Red RSI in the daily can CROSS above 50 before the Energy in the 12h CLOSES below 50. Etc etc. By following these upward pressure races we can see upward pressure propagate up through the timeframes as long as the Red RSI continues to win.
In the 90m the Red RSI crossed bullish above the Blue LSMA and the Blue LSMA changed direction to the upside at around level 50, as a result the Bollinger Bands began to expand, because we are in a period of local upward pressure and the Red RSI and Blue LSMA are both significantly above 50, the price action has established itself between the Aqua/Orange upper BBs. We have to be cautious as the Red RSI has made contact with the Green EMA as it falls, it has not closed like this yet, we are about half way through this current 90m candle, if we do close with the Red RSI making contact with the Green EMA as it falls in 45m approx, we are likely to see the Energy fall below 50 indicating a period of downward pressure, however, this may well be breif based on what I am seeing in the Energy levels of higher timeframes.
In the Immediate Term group of timeframes ( 6 12 23 45)
The Green EMA is higher than the energy in all TFs in the group, indicating bullish sentiment. We are experiencing downward pressure in this group currently but overall sentiment is bullish.
In summary:
There are plenty of bullish signs and we have seen a move to upward pressure. However, resumption to sustained upward pressure has not yet been confirmed. This is a promising long position but should be monitored with caution regularly from the Immediate group upwards.
As mentioned in previous publications, these markets can change with very little notice. These changes initially manifest themselves in the lower timeframes and propagate up through the timeframes. Nothing is set in stone. Unless you are day trading, you cannot benefit from these early warning signals.
As always - this is not financial advice but just my view of current market dynamics.
One has to be aware that analyses are done on the basis of what the indicators are saying at the time and things can change. It is important to always monitor the scalping group of timeframes as we will see changes propagate up from there.
If you got value from this analysis, please hit the like button
Trade safe
aBL
Comment:
Mid Term
Short Term
Immediate Term
Comment:
As mentioned, we were at risk of the Red RSI closing making contact with the Green EMA as it fell in the 90m timeframe and indicated that we would likely see the Energy fall below 50 if this happened. This has played out and the Energy has fallen below 50 (currently 5.5) As a result we have entered a period of downward pressure. The Energy is around level 80 in the 3h and still rising in the 6h & 12h. However while the Red RSI in the 12h remains below 50 we cannot assume upward pressure until the Energy drops to level 50.
In the 90m, while the Red RSI is above 80, there is a chance for the Green EMA to fall to level 50 but it is unlikely that it will go much below unless the Red RSI falls below 80. If, however the Red RSI does fall below 80 the Green EMA can fall to and below level 50 and the price action can drop to the proximity of the BB basis (currently 1.6).
The Energy in the 3h looks unlikely to drop below 50 for another 2-3 candles, in my opinion we have a strong chance of the Energy in the 90 re-establishing itself above level 50 by then.
In the 90m, while the Red RSI is above 80, there is a chance for the Green EMA to fall to level 50 but it is unlikely that it will go much below unless the Red RSI falls below 80. If, however the Red RSI does fall below 80 the Green EMA can fall to and below level 50 and the price action can drop to the proximity of the BB basis (currently 1.6).
The Energy in the 3h looks unlikely to drop below 50 for another 2-3 candles, in my opinion we have a strong chance of the Energy in the 90 re-establishing itself above level 50 by then.
Comment:
I mentioned the upward pressure race between the Red RSI in the 12h and the Energy in the 6h. The Red RSI in the 12h won the race indicating continuation of upward pressure, we now ignore the Energy in the 6h and concentrate on the Energy in the 12h. We now want to see the Red RSI in the daily CROSS above 50 before the Energy in the 12h CLOSES below 50. In this way we can see upward pressure cascading up through higher timeframes. We can also see confirmation in the preceding 3 timeframes with the Green EMA above the Energy. Additionally although it has a little way to go, the Blue LSMA is heading up toward level 50 (currently 37.4). If the Blue LSMA does cross above 50 we increase the odds of the Bollinger Bands expanding. We would like to see the Green EMA in the 12h turn back up though. If it doesn't we are at risk of the Red RSI making contact with the Green EMA as it falls indicating downward pressure and if it closes like that the Energy is likely to cross below 50 at the start of the next candle. It does appear to be starting to turn back up and we could possibly see the Energy turn back up too.
Short Term
In the Near Term group of timeframes:
We were looking to see if the Green EMA could get above the Energy in the daily, this isnt the case so far and the Green EMA has turned back down. Furthermore, the Red RSI has crossed below 50 triggering a downward pressure race in the 2d. (But has at the same time made contact with the Green EMA as it rises but not yet closed)
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 2d a downward pressure race was triggered. In order for upward pressure to continue, we first need to see the Energy in the 2d CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 4d CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green EMA higher than the Energy in at least the three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered. If the Red RSI wins we then have a race between the Energy in the 4d and the Red RSI in the 8d etc. This downward pressure race has cascaded up from lower TFs. Until the Energy decisively wins the race, we do not have a chance for reversal to upward pressure in the relevant timeframes.
The way it looks at the moment, the Energy in the 2d is favourite to win the race, which would indicate continuation of upward pressure for now.
Near Term
Short Term
In the Near Term group of timeframes:
We were looking to see if the Green EMA could get above the Energy in the daily, this isnt the case so far and the Green EMA has turned back down. Furthermore, the Red RSI has crossed below 50 triggering a downward pressure race in the 2d. (But has at the same time made contact with the Green EMA as it rises but not yet closed)
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 2d a downward pressure race was triggered. In order for upward pressure to continue, we first need to see the Energy in the 2d CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 4d CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green EMA higher than the Energy in at least the three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered. If the Red RSI wins we then have a race between the Energy in the 4d and the Red RSI in the 8d etc. This downward pressure race has cascaded up from lower TFs. Until the Energy decisively wins the race, we do not have a chance for reversal to upward pressure in the relevant timeframes.
The way it looks at the moment, the Energy in the 2d is favourite to win the race, which would indicate continuation of upward pressure for now.
Near Term
