ADA: Long on bullish breakout from downtrend (1,22R)
I've set the stop limit order for that trade according to the long tool in the chart.
Background:
I just want to be in a trade that is probably successful in case ADA rallies hard.
Hypothesis:
To have a highly probable successful trade (please tell me if there is a better wording for that) I want to trade a bullish breakout from the major downtrend.
To reduce the risk of a fake out wick I set the entry above these other resistances as well:
o previous swing high
o 30 EMA and 50 EMA
To keep a balance between an acceptable R:R and an entry above resistances I kept the entry didn't move the entry above the 200 EMA and the 2nd to last swing high. If the price breaks out from this major downtrend up to my entry I expect the momentum to be big enough to break these two resistances and make it to the target.
Target:
The order block before the sharp move down.
Stop loss:
o below the major descending downtrend line
o below the major ascending line of the downtrend triangle
Position size:
20% of my portfolio which I plan to use for ADA .
Advantage:
o The downtrend line is pretty clear
o Long distance between downtrend line and entry to be quite sure the trade gets triggered from a wick.
o The entry is less than 5% above the current price. If it rallies I'll be in quickly.
Disadvantage:
o R:R is okish for me but it could be higher. The order block will be a big resistance so there is no good reason to move the target higher but I might find ways to move the stop-loss as price develops.
Disclaimer:
I'm a bloody beginner learning trading since september and I'm only publishing that to make use of the teddy bear effect. I expect to be more aware and conscious about what I'm doing by making it public and to also motivate me more to review my trades correctly. This is why it is obviously not financial advice.
Your feedback is welcome!
Please tell me your opinions as I'm looking forward to other views on my trade idea in the comments and please click thumbs up if you like it.
Background:
I just want to be in a trade that is probably successful in case ADA rallies hard.
Hypothesis:
To have a highly probable successful trade (please tell me if there is a better wording for that) I want to trade a bullish breakout from the major downtrend.
To reduce the risk of a fake out wick I set the entry above these other resistances as well:
o previous swing high
o 30 EMA and 50 EMA
To keep a balance between an acceptable R:R and an entry above resistances I kept the entry didn't move the entry above the 200 EMA and the 2nd to last swing high. If the price breaks out from this major downtrend up to my entry I expect the momentum to be big enough to break these two resistances and make it to the target.
Target:
The order block before the sharp move down.
Stop loss:
o below the major descending downtrend line
o below the major ascending line of the downtrend triangle
Position size:
20% of my portfolio which I plan to use for ADA .
Advantage:
o The downtrend line is pretty clear
o Long distance between downtrend line and entry to be quite sure the trade gets triggered from a wick.
o The entry is less than 5% above the current price. If it rallies I'll be in quickly.
Disadvantage:
o R:R is okish for me but it could be higher. The order block will be a big resistance so there is no good reason to move the target higher but I might find ways to move the stop-loss as price develops.
Disclaimer:
I'm a bloody beginner learning trading since september and I'm only publishing that to make use of the teddy bear effect. I expect to be more aware and conscious about what I'm doing by making it public and to also motivate me more to review my trades correctly. This is why it is obviously not financial advice.
Your feedback is welcome!
Please tell me your opinions as I'm looking forward to other views on my trade idea in the comments and please click thumbs up if you like it.
Comment:
Big Picture:
Comment:
Judging from indicators I expect a breakout from the triangle to the downside:
EMA (30): 0.08 | SELL
Stochastic Fast (14): 36.93 | NEUTRAL
Bull/Bear Power (13): -0.00 | NEUTRAL
EMA (50): 0.08 | SELL
MACD (12, 26): 0.00 | NEUTRAL
EMA (10): 0.08 | SELL
SMA (20): 0.08 | SELL
Ichimoku Cloud B/L (9, 26, 52, 26): 0.08 | NEUTRAL
Momentum (10): -0.00 | SELL
Hull Moving Average (9): 0.08 | SELL
VWMA (10): 0.07 | BUY
SMA (200): 0.16 | SELL
Williams Percent Range (14): -63.07 | NEUTRAL
EMA (200): 0.14 | SELL
EMA (20): 0.08 | SELL
SMA (10): 0.07 | BUY
Commodity Channel Index (20): -66.67 | NEUTRAL
SMA (50): 0.08 | SELL
SMA (30): 0.08 | SELL
Stoch RSI (14): 26.36 | NEUTRAL
EMA (100): 0.10 | SELL
Awesome Oscillator (5, 34): -0.00 | NEUTRAL
SMA (100): 0.10 | SELL
Ultimate Oscillator (7, 14, 28): 41.34 | NEUTRAL
Average Directional Index (14): 28.82 | SELL
RSI (14): 35.56 | NEUTRAL
BUY: 2 | NEUTRAL: 10 | SELL: 14
EMA (30): 0.08 | SELL
Stochastic Fast (14): 36.93 | NEUTRAL
Bull/Bear Power (13): -0.00 | NEUTRAL
EMA (50): 0.08 | SELL
MACD (12, 26): 0.00 | NEUTRAL
EMA (10): 0.08 | SELL
SMA (20): 0.08 | SELL
Ichimoku Cloud B/L (9, 26, 52, 26): 0.08 | NEUTRAL
Momentum (10): -0.00 | SELL
Hull Moving Average (9): 0.08 | SELL
VWMA (10): 0.07 | BUY
SMA (200): 0.16 | SELL
Williams Percent Range (14): -63.07 | NEUTRAL
EMA (200): 0.14 | SELL
EMA (20): 0.08 | SELL
SMA (10): 0.07 | BUY
Commodity Channel Index (20): -66.67 | NEUTRAL
SMA (50): 0.08 | SELL
SMA (30): 0.08 | SELL
Stoch RSI (14): 26.36 | NEUTRAL
EMA (100): 0.10 | SELL
Awesome Oscillator (5, 34): -0.00 | NEUTRAL
SMA (100): 0.10 | SELL
Ultimate Oscillator (7, 14, 28): 41.34 | NEUTRAL
Average Directional Index (14): 28.82 | SELL
RSI (14): 35.56 | NEUTRAL
BUY: 2 | NEUTRAL: 10 | SELL: 14
Comment:
Bitcoin is also pretty bearish. These are the indicators for BTC instead of ADA:
EMA (30): 6514.45 | SELL
Stochastic Fast (14): 28.36 | NEUTRAL
Bull/Bear Power (13): -47.73 | NEUTRAL
EMA (50): 6560.72 | SELL
MACD (12, 26): 5.89 | NEUTRAL
EMA (10): 6486.73 | SELL
SMA (20): 6497.85 | SELL
Ichimoku Cloud B/L (9, 26, 52, 26): 6703.39 | NEUTRAL
Momentum (10): 206.15 | NEUTRAL
Hull Moving Average (9): 6428.62 | BUY
VWMA (10): 6535.45 | SELL
SMA (200): 7201.87 | SELL
Williams Percent Range (14): -71.64 | NEUTRAL
EMA (200): 7254.41 | SELL
EMA (20): 6497.34 | SELL
SMA (10): 6496.27 | SELL
Commodity Channel Index (20): -66.67 | NEUTRAL
SMA (50): 6514.15 | SELL
SMA (30): 6520.09 | SELL
Stoch RSI (14): 54.63 | NEUTRAL
EMA (100): 6747.82 | SELL
Awesome Oscillator (5, 34): -47.94 | NEUTRAL
SMA (100): 6786.49 | SELL
Ultimate Oscillator (7, 14, 28): 40.46 | NEUTRAL
Average Directional Index (14): 26.76 | SELL
RSI (14): 42.42 | NEUTRAL
BUY: 1 | NEUTRAL: 11 | SELL: 14
EMA (30): 6514.45 | SELL
Stochastic Fast (14): 28.36 | NEUTRAL
Bull/Bear Power (13): -47.73 | NEUTRAL
EMA (50): 6560.72 | SELL
MACD (12, 26): 5.89 | NEUTRAL
EMA (10): 6486.73 | SELL
SMA (20): 6497.85 | SELL
Ichimoku Cloud B/L (9, 26, 52, 26): 6703.39 | NEUTRAL
Momentum (10): 206.15 | NEUTRAL
Hull Moving Average (9): 6428.62 | BUY
VWMA (10): 6535.45 | SELL
SMA (200): 7201.87 | SELL
Williams Percent Range (14): -71.64 | NEUTRAL
EMA (200): 7254.41 | SELL
EMA (20): 6497.34 | SELL
SMA (10): 6496.27 | SELL
Commodity Channel Index (20): -66.67 | NEUTRAL
SMA (50): 6514.15 | SELL
SMA (30): 6520.09 | SELL
Stoch RSI (14): 54.63 | NEUTRAL
EMA (100): 6747.82 | SELL
Awesome Oscillator (5, 34): -47.94 | NEUTRAL
SMA (100): 6786.49 | SELL
Ultimate Oscillator (7, 14, 28): 40.46 | NEUTRAL
Average Directional Index (14): 26.76 | SELL
RSI (14): 42.42 | NEUTRAL
BUY: 1 | NEUTRAL: 11 | SELL: 14
Comment:
I drew the triangle on the daily. It really want to break out at the last possible time :-)
The volume is declining, that also indicates a breakout. I'm really curious if it will actually do so.
The volume is declining, that also indicates a breakout. I'm really curious if it will actually do so.
Comment:
The volume is still declining. There is no real breakout. Just a continuation along the major downtrend line.