WildBill2535

ADA Speculative Mania Wanes

Short
BINANCE:ADAUSDT   Cardano / TetherUS
Trading View attracts a lot of people who select their indicators and patterns so as to confirm their upward biases, which always favor their bank accounts and those of their followers. A TV user's reputation is not based on being right but stimulating their followers positive emotions for likes and follows.

Negative comments on or bearish outlooks on TV are brushed aside and dismissed as coming from someone who is a 'noob' or deep in the red and salty over their losses or a two-headed incel living in grandma's basement.

I'm neither a noob nor a pro. I've traded crypto and small cap stocks for ~5 years. I've learned a thing or two about taking money off the table and managing my greedy impulses.

My chart depicts reality.

Facts:
  • Cardano is a relatively unproven blockchain with a built-in crypto - ADA
  • It has a visionary leader who hasn't been able to meet deadlines
  • Its developer community is small and growing (faster than some, slower than others).
  • It has no major projects of value as of right now. Lots of PoCs and pilots -- for whatever those are worth.
  • It achieved a market cap in excess of $100B despite the above

Cardano potentially has a long way to fall. It could go well below $1.00 and even all the way back to the $0.10-$0.30s. It grew massively in 2021 during a speculative mania...yes, it's a bit different from the 2017/18 mania...but it's still a mania.

My thoughts:
  • ADA is way over priced, fundamentally. It has not created any major value! The realist in me says that this project should have a market cap well under $10B
  • At some point, speculative mania will kick up again, Cardano will have a significant product release or PR blitz, and price will go up over $2.00. I don't know when that will happen.
  • Cardano will not magically reach $3.00 again unless real projects that create real value are up and running.
  • In the meantime, smart money will move on other projects where they can pump and dump.
  • Cardano's proof of stake is interesting, the founder understands opportunities in the blockchain space, they are investing in building the developer community. Those are positive signs.
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