Arbutus Biopharma is an interesting stock. There's a lot to know about it.
First of all they are trying to find a functional cure of HepB, this is called AB-729 and it is in the late stage 1 trials. They have announced results from a single dose study which were VERY positive and we are awaiting results from multi-dose part of the trial which should be announced around 13-15 Nov. There is every indication that these will also be positive.
Arbutus is currently evaluating AB-836 for the treatment of chronic HBV infection. By inhibiting assembly of the viral capsid, AB-836 effectively blocks viral replication.
They also have a lot of other stuff around RNAi and several partnered programs.
Genevant partnership... ABUS has exclusively licenced it's patented delivery LNP delivery system to Genevant. Genevant is a company set up in conjunction with Roivant sciences. Biopharmaceutical companies developing nucleic acid therapeutics today include companies singularly focused on individual treatment modalities. Through its proprietary delivery platforms, Genevant is able to pursue mRNA, RNAi, and gene editing modalities and select the optimal approach for any given disease. By 2020, Genevant aims to have 5 to 10 RNA programs in the clinic targeting a range of genetic disorders with limited or no treatment options.
In addition to its equity interest in Genevant, Arbutus is entitled to royalties on future sales of products enabled by Arbutus’ LNP and ligand conjugate delivery technologies.
Genevant then went and signed with BionTech a strategic agreement to use their LNP delivery, Biontech partnered with Pfizer to make a billion doses of Covid vaccines ... can you see where I'm going here?
Royalties will come flooding in once the vaccine gets released but few people know that it leads back to a company with a market cap of 280m. Imagine what significant income does to a company of that size and the effect on share price.
And then there is the Moderna link ... complicated one this but basically Moderna had brought ABUS to court more than once now to try and get their 069 patent nullified. They have lost and are appealing it again. The body of opinion is that Moderna are using the ABUS LNP delivery without permission and have appealed to waste time again. Unfortunately the court decision may not be made til next year but the Patent board has already advised that Moderna do not have a case and the appeal will be overturned. If and when that happens then Moderna will owe massive royalties because all of it's pipeline is based on this LNP delivery.
This is all without mentioning ABUS own efforts at a covid vaccine.
So we have a couple of scenarios.
Good news on phase 1/b HBV target price of 3.5 - 4.5
People to realise that royalties are coming in from Pfizer vaccine target 3.5 - 4.5
Patent dispute to have positive outcome and Moderna to admit they use it in their pipeline target 7 - 10
For all three to come together would push it way above 10 .. prob into the high teens.
Is this a likel scenario in the next year .. yes I would say it is, it is being heavily manipulated at the moment and it looks like big players are accumulating, price is currently 2.79 and I am hoping to add to my position tomorrow as I believe this is the cheapest price you will see for years. I think somehwere around 500% upside in 12 months.
Reality check is that most analysts do not agree with me but their price forecast for 12 months is between 4 - 8 with an average somewhere around 6 but even at that it would be over 100% upside in 12 months.
As always do your own DD, I am not a professional
First of all they are trying to find a functional cure of HepB, this is called AB-729 and it is in the late stage 1 trials. They have announced results from a single dose study which were VERY positive and we are awaiting results from multi-dose part of the trial which should be announced around 13-15 Nov. There is every indication that these will also be positive.
Arbutus is currently evaluating AB-836 for the treatment of chronic HBV infection. By inhibiting assembly of the viral capsid, AB-836 effectively blocks viral replication.
They also have a lot of other stuff around RNAi and several partnered programs.
Genevant partnership... ABUS has exclusively licenced it's patented delivery LNP delivery system to Genevant. Genevant is a company set up in conjunction with Roivant sciences. Biopharmaceutical companies developing nucleic acid therapeutics today include companies singularly focused on individual treatment modalities. Through its proprietary delivery platforms, Genevant is able to pursue mRNA, RNAi, and gene editing modalities and select the optimal approach for any given disease. By 2020, Genevant aims to have 5 to 10 RNA programs in the clinic targeting a range of genetic disorders with limited or no treatment options.
In addition to its equity interest in Genevant, Arbutus is entitled to royalties on future sales of products enabled by Arbutus’ LNP and ligand conjugate delivery technologies.
Genevant then went and signed with BionTech a strategic agreement to use their LNP delivery, Biontech partnered with Pfizer to make a billion doses of Covid vaccines ... can you see where I'm going here?
Royalties will come flooding in once the vaccine gets released but few people know that it leads back to a company with a market cap of 280m. Imagine what significant income does to a company of that size and the effect on share price.
And then there is the Moderna link ... complicated one this but basically Moderna had brought ABUS to court more than once now to try and get their 069 patent nullified. They have lost and are appealing it again. The body of opinion is that Moderna are using the ABUS LNP delivery without permission and have appealed to waste time again. Unfortunately the court decision may not be made til next year but the Patent board has already advised that Moderna do not have a case and the appeal will be overturned. If and when that happens then Moderna will owe massive royalties because all of it's pipeline is based on this LNP delivery.
This is all without mentioning ABUS own efforts at a covid vaccine.
So we have a couple of scenarios.
Good news on phase 1/b HBV target price of 3.5 - 4.5
People to realise that royalties are coming in from Pfizer vaccine target 3.5 - 4.5
Patent dispute to have positive outcome and Moderna to admit they use it in their pipeline target 7 - 10
For all three to come together would push it way above 10 .. prob into the high teens.
Is this a likel scenario in the next year .. yes I would say it is, it is being heavily manipulated at the moment and it looks like big players are accumulating, price is currently 2.79 and I am hoping to add to my position tomorrow as I believe this is the cheapest price you will see for years. I think somehwere around 500% upside in 12 months.
Reality check is that most analysts do not agree with me but their price forecast for 12 months is between 4 - 8 with an average somewhere around 6 but even at that it would be over 100% upside in 12 months.
As always do your own DD, I am not a professional
Comment:
News on HBV Phase 1/b tomorrow and already the first price target as been reached, currently at 3.63 and looking at $4+ by end of next week. I am all in.
Comment:
A slow burner this one but people are finally realising that the royalties for this company in one year may be more than the market cap of the whole company. Sitting around 5 bucks now and Moderna get approved this week and may have to reveal their MOL rations for the LNP. This will be a decisive factor to see another +20% day
Assembly are aiming for the Chinese market and so it would be a perfect way for Abus to enter that market. I expect this level to turn into support and the stock to rise above 3.5 next week, considering the manipulation that's happening we could easily see over 4 dollars. Good luck trading