AAPL Weekly Harmonic Elliott Wave and Hurst’s Cyclic Analysis
Overview: let’s review the key points of the previous update (September 9th):
Update:
Our previous count is not invalidated yet, but based on the price action that we got and the view of cycles and FLD interactions, I am making a major change to my AAPL count.
This is why I mentioned on the update of TSLA to be careful being bullish. Most probably TSLA will show us bearish signs very soon if the new AAPL count actually plays out.
Analysis of the Structure:
In the new count, I see the bullish move of Jan-July 2023 as an ABC structure, labeled as wave 1. The current phase is a wave 2 correcting that whole bullish move. Generally, we expect a wave 2 to be deep and typically they end up in the zone of wave b of previous wave 1, which is the zone of 143.9 to 157.38 on AAPL.
Based on fib retracement of wave 1, I am considering 141.65 as my target for wave 2 bottom.
For now, I am considering wave 2 to develop as a double zigzag, with wave X being a flat correction (why a flat correction? Based on the cycles, but it is too early to predict that and we actually do not care at this stage).
Right now, we are in wave C of V of (c) of w; the first zigzag in wave 2.
Analysis of the Cycles:
There is no change to the overall cycles that we outlined before. This major change of count only shows that the current 40W cycle in this 18M cycle has a high magnitude, so its bearish pressure is high and its pushing the price downward.
The price high of September 5th was the peak of the current 40W cycle, so we have around 35 weeks of bearishness ahead of us.
On Thursday, we got the first 10D cycle trough of the second 20D cycle of the current 40D cycle.
The cross of the 40D FLD has generated a price target of 168 for the 40D trough, expected on 22nd or 25th of September.
The 80D cycle trough is expected around 29th of October 2023. The 20W cycle trough is expected around 1-15th of January 2024 and finally the 40W cycle trough is expected on April of 2024.
Most probably, we will have a cross of the 40W FLD to the downside in the coming week, that can generate a target of 146, which is in agreement with our fib target of 141.65.
I think the interaction of the 40W FLD with the price action that can happen in the coming week will be the key to decide what we expect for the next 35 weeks, but for now I expect a cross to the downside, showing extreme bearishness (the 40W FLD lies around 172 in the coming week, watch that zone carefully).
- We are going back to the count of August 26th.
- Right now, we are in the early stages of wave (III) of a of 5 of (A), 203.12 as a target for wave (III) peak.
- We completed the first 20D cycle in the current 40W cycle (we are in the second 40W cycle of the current 18M cycle).
Update:
Our previous count is not invalidated yet, but based on the price action that we got and the view of cycles and FLD interactions, I am making a major change to my AAPL count.
This is why I mentioned on the update of TSLA to be careful being bullish. Most probably TSLA will show us bearish signs very soon if the new AAPL count actually plays out.
Analysis of the Structure:
In the new count, I see the bullish move of Jan-July 2023 as an ABC structure, labeled as wave 1. The current phase is a wave 2 correcting that whole bullish move. Generally, we expect a wave 2 to be deep and typically they end up in the zone of wave b of previous wave 1, which is the zone of 143.9 to 157.38 on AAPL.
Based on fib retracement of wave 1, I am considering 141.65 as my target for wave 2 bottom.
For now, I am considering wave 2 to develop as a double zigzag, with wave X being a flat correction (why a flat correction? Based on the cycles, but it is too early to predict that and we actually do not care at this stage).
Right now, we are in wave C of V of (c) of w; the first zigzag in wave 2.
Analysis of the Cycles:
There is no change to the overall cycles that we outlined before. This major change of count only shows that the current 40W cycle in this 18M cycle has a high magnitude, so its bearish pressure is high and its pushing the price downward.
The price high of September 5th was the peak of the current 40W cycle, so we have around 35 weeks of bearishness ahead of us.
On Thursday, we got the first 10D cycle trough of the second 20D cycle of the current 40D cycle.
The cross of the 40D FLD has generated a price target of 168 for the 40D trough, expected on 22nd or 25th of September.
The 80D cycle trough is expected around 29th of October 2023. The 20W cycle trough is expected around 1-15th of January 2024 and finally the 40W cycle trough is expected on April of 2024.
Most probably, we will have a cross of the 40W FLD to the downside in the coming week, that can generate a target of 146, which is in agreement with our fib target of 141.65.
I think the interaction of the 40W FLD with the price action that can happen in the coming week will be the key to decide what we expect for the next 35 weeks, but for now I expect a cross to the downside, showing extreme bearishness (the 40W FLD lies around 172 in the coming week, watch that zone carefully).
