EXTREMELY RISKY PLAY!!!! DO NOT FOLLOW THIS IF YOU HAVE >100 IQ
Very interesting that the Fed's meeting is on the same day as AAPL's earnings report. Highly dependent on the meeting to set the tone for the market.
AAPL has hit its all-time high. Kudos to Tim Cook, what an impressive CEO.
Last years' Q4 has been a blood bath, may this years' Q4 resemble a seasonal replication?
Positive Sentiment:
- Apple price target raised to $289 from $247 by Morgan Stanley -> Caused the insane bull run leading up to earnings
- AAPL UBS Reiterated Buy, Price Target from 235 to 275 -> Same situation as above
Negative Sentiment:
- AAPL offers Japan Display more support
- The i-Phone XR is the highest selling i-Phone YTD, not the 11 or 11 Pro.
- iPhone pricing of the 11 may leave billions of dollars on the table (cheaper product, you would need more sales Hence I believe that it being released so recently may lead to lower numbers than what the people are expecting.
-> $50 Cheaper, around $1.3 billion dollars they're leaving on the table (calculations based on 6 months of last year's sales)
However, this short term loss will be off-set by future services revenue due to MORE cheaper i-Phones being sold over time.
Apple Card: Long term successful product, would not expect the best returns as of yet, just recently got released. Interest payments may not yet have offset the COST of producing and distributing the titanium cards. Credit cards are a LOAN business, they will see better returns over the long term. Titanium is an expensive metal, don't think your APR's covered the cost of a 14.75 gram slab of titanium yet. Intended to promote the widespread usage of Apple Pay - maybe a retained balance will prove a net gain on Apple's balance sheets?
Apple TV+: Very reasonably priced product, seems (majority of sentiment) already priced in
Shorting Apple seems very appealing but I did not cover everything of course. Let's wait and see on Wednesday!
MACD - moving averages are hitting a bearish (downtrend) crossover
RSI - Shows that we are in oversold territory (overvalued)
-----------------------------
1) It is not a long term play for me, my expiration date on my puts are on 11/8 so market has time to react
2) Apple is at its all time high, while earnings may be good, if its not good enough to bring the price even further, we know for sure it is in a over-valued position
3) The stock has been bullish this whole month, a lot of news are priced in already so i think theres more room for it to down than to go up
Peep apples 2018 Q4, they did amazing for that quarter
had amazing EPS but the market as a whole was not valid -> brought down apple stock regardless
BUT our situation right now is different; apple is booming, the dow is booming, SPY is really high right now
but theres a saying "what goes up must also go down"
-------------------------------------
APPLE PUTS AFTER EARNINGS IS LOGICAL!
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Very interesting that the Fed's meeting is on the same day as AAPL's earnings report. Highly dependent on the meeting to set the tone for the market.
AAPL has hit its all-time high. Kudos to Tim Cook, what an impressive CEO.
Last years' Q4 has been a blood bath, may this years' Q4 resemble a seasonal replication?
Positive Sentiment:
- Apple price target raised to $289 from $247 by Morgan Stanley -> Caused the insane bull run leading up to earnings
- AAPL UBS Reiterated Buy, Price Target from 235 to 275 -> Same situation as above
Negative Sentiment:
- AAPL offers Japan Display more support
- The i-Phone XR is the highest selling i-Phone YTD, not the 11 or 11 Pro.
- iPhone pricing of the 11 may leave billions of dollars on the table (cheaper product, you would need more sales Hence I believe that it being released so recently may lead to lower numbers than what the people are expecting.
-> $50 Cheaper, around $1.3 billion dollars they're leaving on the table (calculations based on 6 months of last year's sales)
However, this short term loss will be off-set by future services revenue due to MORE cheaper i-Phones being sold over time.
Apple Card: Long term successful product, would not expect the best returns as of yet, just recently got released. Interest payments may not yet have offset the COST of producing and distributing the titanium cards. Credit cards are a LOAN business, they will see better returns over the long term. Titanium is an expensive metal, don't think your APR's covered the cost of a 14.75 gram slab of titanium yet. Intended to promote the widespread usage of Apple Pay - maybe a retained balance will prove a net gain on Apple's balance sheets?
Apple TV+: Very reasonably priced product, seems (majority of sentiment) already priced in
Shorting Apple seems very appealing but I did not cover everything of course. Let's wait and see on Wednesday!
MACD - moving averages are hitting a bearish (downtrend) crossover
RSI - Shows that we are in oversold territory (overvalued)
-----------------------------
1) It is not a long term play for me, my expiration date on my puts are on 11/8 so market has time to react
2) Apple is at its all time high, while earnings may be good, if its not good enough to bring the price even further, we know for sure it is in a over-valued position
3) The stock has been bullish this whole month, a lot of news are priced in already so i think theres more room for it to down than to go up
Peep apples 2018 Q4, they did amazing for that quarter
had amazing EPS but the market as a whole was not valid -> brought down apple stock regardless
BUT our situation right now is different; apple is booming, the dow is booming, SPY is really high right now
but theres a saying "what goes up must also go down"
-------------------------------------
APPLE PUTS AFTER EARNINGS IS LOGICAL!