I have gone back and forth on my position on where the markets are heading. Finding reasons to be both Bullish and Bearish. It is a fact FED is going to tighten monetary policy and reduce their buying spreadsheet. My initial thoughts on these last 2 months of red were the market's pricing in the anticipated FED withdrawal.
Then after today, we saw a break in S&P500 support and I have been reassessing since. This is when I happened upon this doozy of a chart.
It is important to note, Technical Analysis is not the end all be all when it comes to investing. It is simply one tool to use with many. Nonetheless, this chart is concerning, to say the least, and one day we might look back on it and think...
"How did we not see this coming?"
Then after today, we saw a break in S&P500 support and I have been reassessing since. This is when I happened upon this doozy of a chart.
It is important to note, Technical Analysis is not the end all be all when it comes to investing. It is simply one tool to use with many. Nonetheless, this chart is concerning, to say the least, and one day we might look back on it and think...
"How did we not see this coming?"
Comment:
Just want to say I appreciate all of the support and everyone's input in the comments! Going to see how the week open's up tomorrow and will look to provide a quality update in relation to the S&P, NASDAQ, etc. Again, appreciate every single one of you!
Comment:
I just want to say thank you again to all who have engaged with and commented on this post! The support is beyond appreciated. I have linked a short update on where I think NASDAQ could potentially be headed in the future short term as we approach FED tightening and geopolitical tensions.
I have also linked my most recent Bitcoin BTC update if that is of interest to anyone. I share insights that are meaningful to all of my posts.
I have also linked my most recent Bitcoin BTC update if that is of interest to anyone. I share insights that are meaningful to all of my posts.
Comment:
With the Macro environment as it is with a weakening economy even when rates are at 0, the FED is going to find itself in a very tough spot. Pair this with the ongoing war, a threat to Taiwan by China, possible Global Recession, High Inflation, Energy prices soaring (which is possibly the most important thing to take note of here), all of this ends in the same way most likely.
I think the chances of a recession have multiplied at this point and I'd wager the FED is fully aware of this. They could potentially pivot here and instead of letting it happen, they may want to cause the recession to give themselves breathing room to work with. As odd as it sounds. Since a recession comes both ways.
It is more logical to Raise Rates + Taper as you don't want a recession hitting (which it is) with Rates at 0 and QE. And they cant lower rates at 0 or even worse inject more money.
The FED causing the recession has happened before in the 1980s when the FED was headed by Volcker. Just recently Powell was asked, "Are you prepared to do what it takes to get inflation under control?" to which Powell responded, "I hope history will record that the answer to your question is Yes".
Here is a small update on $AAPL on LTF to see potential paths ahead.
I think the chances of a recession have multiplied at this point and I'd wager the FED is fully aware of this. They could potentially pivot here and instead of letting it happen, they may want to cause the recession to give themselves breathing room to work with. As odd as it sounds. Since a recession comes both ways.
It is more logical to Raise Rates + Taper as you don't want a recession hitting (which it is) with Rates at 0 and QE. And they cant lower rates at 0 or even worse inject more money.
The FED causing the recession has happened before in the 1980s when the FED was headed by Volcker. Just recently Powell was asked, "Are you prepared to do what it takes to get inflation under control?" to which Powell responded, "I hope history will record that the answer to your question is Yes".
Here is a small update on $AAPL on LTF to see potential paths ahead.
Comment:
Here is a perfect example of why Energy Prices soaring is very dangerous for the broader economy. And the Ongoing war in Ukraine against Russia and the threat of limiting Oil imports from Russia will keep these prices soaring for the foreseeable future.
Each time there has been a significant deviation from the trend paired with high Oil prices, it has triggered a Recession. This has happened 6 times since 1970. I can only show 3 examples here because of chart limitations. We could be faced with the 7th time as the recipe for this to happen seems to be stellar at the moment.
Each time there has been a significant deviation from the trend paired with high Oil prices, it has triggered a Recession. This has happened 6 times since 1970. I can only show 3 examples here because of chart limitations. We could be faced with the 7th time as the recipe for this to happen seems to be stellar at the moment.
Comment:
I decided this last update was important enough to actually create a post on it and expand on a few points further. If that interests anyone at all I have linked the update below! Thank you all again, I think this is very important information going forward.
Comment:
I have finally updated my thoughts on $AAPL, if that is of any interest you can check it out here:
