Volume don't lie, and volume profile since this wide and tall rally began in 2020 says that this is the top. I put all Mag 7 on this chart, they are parabolic. Volume is a needle at the top, exhaustion.
It appears that the Mag 7 are so big, that they have huge price search runs, and also huge failures. Look, the last trough was 55%. And no one thought the sky was falling. This rally is on much thinner volume, went way higher, and probably will fall less, but it will fall.
I trade futures and the price action on this rally has been terrible. Tight jittery ranges, exhaustion then a last second turn. That can only last so long. Now we have a rate decision in June and like it or not, that's a time target. And we're over extended. And Mag 7 index is a Doji on the WEEKLY.
I'm not that experienced a trader, but what I have learned is that volume doesn't lie, weekly candles don't lie, and big changes happen slowly. This entire week shows us that it's a possible and likely top. It's kind of obvious. Does that mean a bubble? Anything is possible, but if it happens the market will crash 80% after, not 30%.
Bears see the weakness, they want to run this market into June and try to break through the bottom of the high volume area around 3700. Don't go thinking that sounds low. The Mag 7 are trading like small cap stocks, and the price range on the index is going to reflect this. It's not dangerous, it's just the new normal until it isn't.
That's my guess.
It appears that the Mag 7 are so big, that they have huge price search runs, and also huge failures. Look, the last trough was 55%. And no one thought the sky was falling. This rally is on much thinner volume, went way higher, and probably will fall less, but it will fall.
I trade futures and the price action on this rally has been terrible. Tight jittery ranges, exhaustion then a last second turn. That can only last so long. Now we have a rate decision in June and like it or not, that's a time target. And we're over extended. And Mag 7 index is a Doji on the WEEKLY.
I'm not that experienced a trader, but what I have learned is that volume doesn't lie, weekly candles don't lie, and big changes happen slowly. This entire week shows us that it's a possible and likely top. It's kind of obvious. Does that mean a bubble? Anything is possible, but if it happens the market will crash 80% after, not 30%.
Bears see the weakness, they want to run this market into June and try to break through the bottom of the high volume area around 3700. Don't go thinking that sounds low. The Mag 7 are trading like small cap stocks, and the price range on the index is going to reflect this. It's not dangerous, it's just the new normal until it isn't.
That's my guess.