Apple is another extremely crowded trade that has moved well beyond its moving averages. There are a few different metrics I am looking at as I initiate this trade.
Looking at comparable companies, I am seeing mobile device headwinds for AAPL, as they announce their quarterly results this afternoon. Most recently, Samsung saw a decline in mobile sales of 18% QoQ and 22% YoY. Forward guidance from Samsung also included a slowdown in top line revenue for mobile devices due to a reduction is ASPs (Average Selling Prices) and customers holding older models for longer periods of time. Considering that Galaxy smartphones rival the iPhone in popularity, I am expecting similar results in Apple's quarterly results which may trigger a sell-off.
Technical analysis is also supporting a short position, as volume is not supporting price action. RSI is showing a series of bearish divergences while price has moved higher, indicating a false breakout. MACD is also showing bearish divergences with a bearish cross-over on Daily and Weekly charts. Stochastic confirms bearish reversal on longer term charts as well. Based on Fibonacci levels, I am looking for a short-term target of $98 per share. As always, investment horizon is 3 - 4 month time frame. I am seeing upside risk of roughly 2.5%, and I would recommend placing stop losses at $196 per share.
Cheers
Looking at comparable companies, I am seeing mobile device headwinds for AAPL, as they announce their quarterly results this afternoon. Most recently, Samsung saw a decline in mobile sales of 18% QoQ and 22% YoY. Forward guidance from Samsung also included a slowdown in top line revenue for mobile devices due to a reduction is ASPs (Average Selling Prices) and customers holding older models for longer periods of time. Considering that Galaxy smartphones rival the iPhone in popularity, I am expecting similar results in Apple's quarterly results which may trigger a sell-off.
Technical analysis is also supporting a short position, as volume is not supporting price action. RSI is showing a series of bearish divergences while price has moved higher, indicating a false breakout. MACD is also showing bearish divergences with a bearish cross-over on Daily and Weekly charts. Stochastic confirms bearish reversal on longer term charts as well. Based on Fibonacci levels, I am looking for a short-term target of $98 per share. As always, investment horizon is 3 - 4 month time frame. I am seeing upside risk of roughly 2.5%, and I would recommend placing stop losses at $196 per share.
Cheers
Comment:
Short position opened @ $200.65
Comment:
Wow, looks like someone is hell bent on getting AAPL to hit $1T market cap...
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Added to short @ $205.87
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Cash flow from operations has been falling the past two quarters yet Apple has already spent $42B+ on share buy backs this year, which is more than their total buy back from 2017, $32.9B. To put some perspective, their average annual buy back for the past five years has been roughly $30B. Suspicious...
iPhone units +1% YoY @ at 41.3M
iPad revenue -5% YoY @ $4.7B
Mac revenue -5% YoY @ $5.3B
Services revenue +31% YoY @ $9.5B
Other Products +37% @ $3.7B