AAPL Weekly Harmonic Elliott Wave and Hurst's Cyclic Analysis
Review:
Let's review the highlights of the previous update (December 23rd 2023):
Update:
Analysis of the Structure:
The down move was a lot more aggressive than I expected. We knew that we are in wave b of 5, and mentioned before that I expect it to be a triangle, but it can turn into any other kind of correction with the same probability, which is the actual case.
I see wave b of 5 of (A) completed as a triple zigzag now. What we expect next is the last leg to the upside before a multi-month correction starts (wave (B)).
Analysis of the Cycles:
I think we got the 80D trough on Friday, which was a 70-day cycle and very close to the nominal value of 68.
We are now in the second 80D cycle of the current 20W cycle.
Troughs to come:
1. 20D trough on 22nd or 23rd January.
2. 40D trough 7-9th February.
3. 20W trough in the last 2 weeks of March.
There are some major warning/bearish signs on the cyclic analysis of AAPL that might lead to an invalidation of our count and change to the cyclic analysis in the coming weeks:
1. The 80D FLD was expected to provide support for the price action and lead to a bounce, but we got crossed below this FLD and even surpassed its downside target (183).
2. We got a close below the 18M FLD this week.
Let's review the highlights of the previous update (December 23rd 2023):
- In wave (C) of Y of a of b.
- On Tuesday, we will have the first 20D cycle trough of the second 40D cycle of the first 80D cycle of the 20W cycle.
Update:
Analysis of the Structure:
The down move was a lot more aggressive than I expected. We knew that we are in wave b of 5, and mentioned before that I expect it to be a triangle, but it can turn into any other kind of correction with the same probability, which is the actual case.
I see wave b of 5 of (A) completed as a triple zigzag now. What we expect next is the last leg to the upside before a multi-month correction starts (wave (B)).
Analysis of the Cycles:
I think we got the 80D trough on Friday, which was a 70-day cycle and very close to the nominal value of 68.
We are now in the second 80D cycle of the current 20W cycle.
Troughs to come:
1. 20D trough on 22nd or 23rd January.
2. 40D trough 7-9th February.
3. 20W trough in the last 2 weeks of March.
There are some major warning/bearish signs on the cyclic analysis of AAPL that might lead to an invalidation of our count and change to the cyclic analysis in the coming weeks:
1. The 80D FLD was expected to provide support for the price action and lead to a bounce, but we got crossed below this FLD and even surpassed its downside target (183).
2. We got a close below the 18M FLD this week.
