FundaTecho Analysis | AAPL Cup and Handle, Starting 2021 on Sale
Markets starting the new year on sale, this selloff was expected with tax considerations from last year's gains. Move down was compounded by Georgia senate elections with a result expected by Thursday open. Markets do not like binary catalysts, when they do happen I see opportunity. If Dems win control of the senate, my 2021 outlook will change considerably.
Technicals:
- Major cup and handle forming, need to see a move up to ATH within the next 2 weeks
- Gap filled at 128
- Fell back into support at 127 rising channel (red line)
- 0.382 fib support (fib started from bottom of trend change)
Fundamentals:
- Q4 upgrade supercycle expected to show better than expected sales in Jan earnings
- Weak dollar has benefited international sales, especially considering high unit prices
- Multiple new product launches (non-iphone)
- Many products are on backorder due to supply side issues (AirPods max still sold out for 1-2 months)
- Another iCar rumor can significantly boost short term interest (TSLA at a new ATH while the dow is down 600)
Risks:
- Democrats winning control of US Senate, we will see a definite passing of higher taxes across the board in order to fund socialist projects (college loan forgiveness, bankrupt state bailouts, etc.) Stock buyback programs may also be banned/severely neutered.
- Fed rate increase (Not expected to happen until minimum summer and vaccine rollout)
- Market scare leading to a downward momentum move
Stoploss:
Will exit calls if falls below 125 support
Exit shares if below golden pocket at 118
Technicals:
- Major cup and handle forming, need to see a move up to ATH within the next 2 weeks
- Gap filled at 128
- Fell back into support at 127 rising channel (red line)
- 0.382 fib support (fib started from bottom of trend change)
Fundamentals:
- Q4 upgrade supercycle expected to show better than expected sales in Jan earnings
- Weak dollar has benefited international sales, especially considering high unit prices
- Multiple new product launches (non-iphone)
- Many products are on backorder due to supply side issues (AirPods max still sold out for 1-2 months)
- Another iCar rumor can significantly boost short term interest (TSLA at a new ATH while the dow is down 600)
Risks:
- Democrats winning control of US Senate, we will see a definite passing of higher taxes across the board in order to fund socialist projects (college loan forgiveness, bankrupt state bailouts, etc.) Stock buyback programs may also be banned/severely neutered.
- Fed rate increase (Not expected to happen until minimum summer and vaccine rollout)
- Market scare leading to a downward momentum move
Stoploss:
Will exit calls if falls below 125 support
Exit shares if below golden pocket at 118
Comment:
Hearing rumors on apple working on folding phone tech, another news "leak" could be the start to the next move up.
Trade active:
Both senate seats are looking to go to the dems, however there was an overallocation in treasuries as a hedge, the predicted crash in tech has been bought up rather quickly as that capital moves back into equities. See yield curve comparison, and watch rates closely for the year