# bitcoin 50/50 trap higher weekly high and lower low to follow

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$6,921.4 is a 61.8 retrace. I've gone for a bit lower.

All I'm trying to guess in the charts above is what if bitcoin has seen bottom do we also need to hit a consecutive weekly low like on previous occasions, in which case can we get it done using the low of the week beginning 17th September.

Based on my TO THE MOON study posted 2nd October we did get a consecutive weekly low in the first example reproduced again below

Sorry above chart was not the weekly but the daily. Ignore. Thanks.

Ending with a consecutive fractal low on the daily wouldn't be a bad thing though if you take look back to the start of many a huge bull run.

Here's what I mean on the weekly

How useful are consecutive daily fractal lows at identifying lows. Well maybe once a year? Have marked them in white in the chart below. Didn't check for sure in detail but does look like at least one of them managed to catch each yearly low.

My latest post which is an update of an older study "bitcoin bulls could surprise & surpass expectation 50/50"

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Watching

Watching bigger

Whatever you use or create on a chart not all of them will create value for a repeatable trading strategy, however, being able to see the position of the many patterns (or a single pattern) on a chart like halfway through a game of chess may just help identify or perfect new ones. In this study below I was interested in creating patterns (just triangles) in between different coloured Aroon bars. Like between 100 of one colour to the 100 of the next, including to where the next colour first rises above the previous. Once complete i edited out all those I didn't think were useful, and to see what conditions may continue to support the view that bitcoin had bottomed, etc....

More studies

I think I may have discovered the secret to the next big buy/sell signal. Will be watching how this chart develops.

Big question if histogram goes lower than yesterday 7th Oct, in which case I would add the final green vertical to my chart, and the RSI goes below that of the first green vertical of 49.8317 would that be a buy signal.

(Update) Question if histogram ends lower than 9th Oct, in which case would add the final green vertical to my chart, and RSI ends below first green vertical of 49.8317 would that be a buy signal. The green and purple DNA of the Histogram matches two other recent occasions but they signalled tops.

You will find all of my bull and bear arguments in my post 24th September "#bitcoin bull bear watch don't get caught out".

Has bitcoin bottomed?

I think we could be about to find out today unless price rises back up, or, need review.

I have boxed in some primary areas of interest to me for comparing recent past, and added below extra photo's for comparison with previous examples.

The RSI did not end below 49.8317. Therefore, the above observation does not help with a bullish argument.

#bitcoin fractal patterns same as December but with a twist

Here's my latest observation, and below comparing December's example. 50/50 price finds support and my to the moon charts/arguments remain intact. Some of my bearish charts/arguments still have 50/50 chance too.

#bitcoin could rebound tomorrow thanks to gold price leap

Here is the daily chart of gold 2.50% 2.09% and bitcoin -4.80% -4.83% . Notice my use of Aroon 1 (blue) 11 (brown). Notice the correlation with Bitcoin -4.80% -4.83% when brown Aroon hits 100. Have boxed in volatility to nearest Blue Aroon at 100. The Aroon is done using the Gold 2.50% 2.09% chart. I've superimposed the brown Aroon on bitcoin -4.80% for better clarity.

Note that move could also be short lived to just one day, or, none at all. 3rd March didn't work well at all. Looks quite good at catching bitcoin -4.80% at point of rebound. All ideas 50/50

Looking good so far

From my latest post "bitcoin another bullish argument/chart for the bulls". A new study to add to the many I've done. Used CCI in log scale which revealed some interesting insight because all year these are the only two occasions with this much and the same amount of choppiness . The last time it was bullish . Could it repeat. My only worry at the minute is that my last key signal was bearish .

GREAT NEWS FOR BULLS

Another encouraging bullish observation

If you wish to view the last 52 charts in one thread check out my post dated Sept. 24