stowstpheonix

stowstpheonix

3 month yield - 10Yr yield compared to SPX for last 60yrs...prety clear that when spreads correct, markets correct. question is when do these yields correct with everyone expected fed to start cutting in 2024.

stowstpheonix

The artist in me say H&S, all over the indexes too. we will see lower prices. the data scientist says: Apple's bounce was not in a large support area, suggests short term covering and some BTFD calls are pushing it up. The big volume has been long since ~70 and is still sitting on big gains. I'm short apple, and will look to cover and look for longs south of...

stowstpheonix Updated 

Not sure this is a legit pattern, but I noticed it on the 45min when I zoomed out to add a trendline from march lows...the blue line is trend line from march lows. if the H&S is correct....and that trend line does not hold....3100 is coming by friday....if it holds. 3250. what a time to be alive!

stowstpheonix Updated 

just a swing long...but I think the overall trend has changed, we'll consolidate, then more down through the summer. again short term long...I think Jul-sept is going to be mainly down.

stowstpheonix

3200 and the H&S up there looks like a massive bull trap. YTD it is still a HUGE volume spike. 3100-3110 looks like ANOTHER bull trap. We failed new ATH....the biggest volume spike is down around 2850...pretty darn close to the OPEX max pain, FWIW. I covered and re shorted at 3150....I'm of the mind that we retest 2850...maybe not this week, but soon enough....

stowstpheonix

last week the defense of 3000 lowered the volume profile at the 2950 level, and the POC is now up at 3198 (45min from May low)...quite the bull trap in hindsight. need to get multi day profiles on here some how. would have shown the change. if we break lower now....2800 seems more likely, with a pause at 2950....that would create some max pain on the opex...

stowstpheonix

Uptrend line from march low is being tested/broken here following the late in the day (EST) H&S. We'll see how it does over night, maybe it catches a bid here, if not...see the volume spikes below. 3100-3120, 3040-3060...we could trade those by friday easy. There is plenty of YTD supply up at the 3250 area still...and the big volume level below is 2800. I'm short...

stowstpheonix

VSTO sells a lot of shooting sports products. Heavy AMMO sales, in addition it is a outdoor sports/2020 camping bonaza play. Sitting at a key level, really like it for a reopen play that hasn't fully took off yet. Break above this level and $14 is coming, then $16 above that.

stowstpheonix

just an opinion, but the thin volume and two down moves on volume with up on none, just looks toppy short term. publishing as a bookmark of sorts to see if the pattern holds.

stowstpheonix

Took a 5/22 145p at 0.55 today. We'll see, but the gap ups below and thin volume have me betting, not trading, betting, on a quick drop and pop in the option. It might have been better as aday trade, but I'm swing for a gap down open. Note: this is a less and .5% or portfolio bet, not even a trade. Just feels like some profit taking in tech is over due. still...

stowstpheonix Updated 

comparing 45min chart of SPY and IYT...volume profile gives some support as to why the IYT is not recovering. there is no volume support at current prices, and holders mainly bought much higher... SPY...it is at the point of supply...failed to get above it and is now grinding in a narrow range as the volume at this level fights for supremacy...I think the...

stowstpheonix

45min chart SPY...at the big volume supply/demand area...small bounce. As we head into weekend, any negative news is going to drive us down. Neutral or no news, we'll prob bounce and hold this level, but not for an upside swing, more of a wait and see. I continue to have a heavy short bias here, and have since we got above 2750...not sure how long it takes to be...

stowstpheonix

Looks like the market thought a one day dip in numbers was a sign to rally, only to sell off the next day when deaths spike. Please note: Florida, Texas, Michigan, and others are 2weeks or more away from their own peaks. We open this back up to early, and we will be back in a full on panic outbreak 2-3 weeks after reopening. I'll be buying lower, as will...

stowstpheonix Updated 

Two trend lines shown. Above the circled buy area is the line from 2016 resistance, below is the trend line from 1987 bottom...it tracks to about 1450-1550 resistance point. We are in unknown waters here. April will be ugly, and it will get worse before it gets better. I'm looking to get in when it gets closer to 50-60% from the highs.

stowstpheonix

Saw an article on a short time frame chart, less than 1D, about some kind of reverse H&S forming. So, I pulled up my weekly chart I've been watching since I got short at the 280 level back in Oct. I see a normal H&S forming on the weekly for a while now (since the election run up in 2016, and tax run up in 2017), this rapid bounce being the right shoulder. Long...

stowstpheonix Updated 

I think we are going to fill the gap up form the late 2017 tax boost. the gas has run out and the risk trade is off. looking for long entries when S&P goes below 2500....backing the truck up below 2300.

stowstpheonix

The 3 H&S patterns I show seem pretty darn clear in hindsight. @Sherem called one of them and the reverse one at 360 the first time. The last one broke a major up trend line at ~400. The daily is starting to look pretty oversold, but the lack of really big volume >450K on the down moves makes me think we have another leg down. Might pause here a day or two, but I...

stowstpheonix

Looking at 45min, 4h, and the 1D here...I see the down trend from 1400 continuing...the major trend line that I ran off the first 360, is being challenged here at the 420 area. If it breaks, there are historical levels (marked 350, 250-300, 200 (yes it is in play if this trend line does not hold)). We might pause or bounce off any of those levels. However, it is...