reluctantplumber

reluctantplumber

LPI has alot of debt but they are in process of moving the maturity out a little further. Any further escalations with Iran could provide some spill over up-side here. This is for your day play high risk monies only. Lets see if price can defeat and hold the current resistance before trying a long...

reluctantplumber

So I know I have been a bit of a killjoy on Gold lately, but the dollar is looking like it may want to fall from grace for at least awhile. I think if dollar loses this channel we could see an extended run for Gold. My only concern, what in the world can crush the dollar right now?

reluctantplumber Updated 

So its been another amazing run for the indexes (I have particularly enjoyed the RUT) but the VIX is not going to zero. Time to start thinking defense, the markets only need an excuse to get bearish. The December 15 Tariff deadline could be just what is needed to send the VIX back to the cloud. Gold might be a good one here with low leverage, its been holding up...

reluctantplumber

So the worst case scenario is that Gold gets beat to death while the yield rises and best case, it holds its ground in the 1300's - Not to say the yield makes it to 3% anytime soon but waiting for Gold to move higher may prove more than most can take.

reluctantplumber

Not much to say about it other than I think DJI will fair better than SPX and NASDAQ. However DJI will sell off further than many think in the first half of October.

reluctantplumber

On October 1st of 2007 the S&P 500 had reached a new all time high. Then began a 518 day plunge that would be known as the great recession of 2008. 3,837 days later in September of 2019, the S&P 500 would reach another all time high. This one over 353% higher than that terrible bottom. Gold had already began a multi year up-trend before the beginning of the great...

reluctantplumber

even though 10 year yield is moving down today - it has cleared the first daily diagonal - some might see a cup and handle forming - this would be bad for Gold

reluctantplumber

Im a sucker at any of the solid or dashed green lines. Trade, Brexit, zero to negative interest around the world, none of these problems will be solved anytime soon. You must own Gold today.

reluctantplumber

I know, telling everyone to buy with both hands, and a short while later re-thinking it. I am not a seller here, if Gold can make it above that very old red line, there is a whole new world of prices waiting. This will be the second attempt to clear the resistance for now I wait. We need to see what develops from here, If we start to see the news cycle turn...

reluctantplumber

I will not waste your time listing all of the reasons to own Gold in today's environment. If you follow Gold you already know all of those reasons. When Trump gets done throwing things around his office today, he is going to get nasty with China. Is the U.S. mucking around in Hong Kong? Xi thinks so, and Trump is all about debunking conspiracy theories. Let your...

reluctantplumber

I wanted to follow up with a monthly view of the last chart - notice how that measured next leg would meet up with a very old trend line...

reluctantplumber

We see Gold holding up very well above 1400 - This looks like a classic Pennant continuation pattern, sure would be nice to catch that next leg. I'm hoping for one more opportunity to buy at 1388 - 1390

reluctantplumber

Nice break out on the cup handle with a bull flag to boot.

reluctantplumber

If your not in already watch for the handle break out. Measuring the Cup gives us an ultimate target of 65 ish - Good Luck!

reluctantplumber

I like 55.5 and 54 to start adding again

reluctantplumber

Get some on the pullback target 15 and 16

reluctantplumber

So its now my best trade of the last 14 months. Getting back in heavy in the 1260's has given us some great profits but now its time to take a breather. While Gold made a rocket run, it still has no confirmed break out from what I will call the last resistance at 1440 ish. Lets sit back and wait for the next opportunity to add. I will begin adding back in the...

reluctantplumber

No longs for me in the ETF world. This chart may seem a bit unreasonable given the support from central banks, but I think Bonds are telling us something. I am not long volitility yet, but I may be soon...