Looking at NAS on the daily, price is approaching a trend line that has been well respected over the past year, along with RSI reaching towards the oversold territory, and the MACD already deep under; from a technical perspective, 12950/13000 could be a great price to enter a long position for a medium term trade. However, the key fundamental factor driving NAS...
NAS price over the past 6 weeks is forming a pattern that closely resembles Sept/Oct 2020 price movement.
In order for this trade to be valid, point 7 needs to reflect a failed break above point 1 (as can be seen 12-14th Oct). I will be looking for a daily close below 13600, and then below 13530 over the next few trading sessions.
Close above trend line I think could send us back towards ATH over the next few weeks (few key challenges: 13300 & 13700)
Failure to close above this line, I think will send us down towards the lower channel line with ease (around 12500).
KEY SUPPORT: 12700-750
KEY RESISTANCE: 13270-330
short term: buying dips on the way up to 13300 (completion of inverse H&S), with heavy buy limit at 12760.
Long term: wait for break and retest of neckline for long entry. Half and full H&S targets noted on graph.
Short term - Bearish
Long term - Bullish
Sellers picking up, cross-over on the 240m MACD - expect price to retreat to 12730/780 before finding enough buyers to take us back to and above 13300 level.
Inverse H&S forming on the 60m.
Previously expected that a move up to and above 13300 would come later this week. However, due to a strong presence of buyers around 12400-450, I think this upwards move may come even sooner than anticipated, especially if we can close today above 12770-810.
Recent activity looking similar to the Sept 2020 correction. Will look for a retest of the trend line to place long trade. Would expect such a move late next week, but could trigger early depending on today's US NF Payrolls outcome.
If price breaks below trend, and below 12160-190 level, I will be looking to short NAS100 down to 11k.
Looking for rejection on medium term trend line. Looking similar to bounce off of trend line 25/02. (Cross-over on the hourly MACD will provide further confirmation).
SL: 13167 // Target: 12775.
If price breaks above 13170, will look for a buy entry targeting 13358.