protechtor

protechtor Updated 

To put it simply, I believe we have seen or nearly seen the end of the viscous bear market from early 2018 to 2020 and am looking for evidence/confirmation of that change of trend. I am speculatively positioned accordingly. Long term trend changes can be very volatile and frustrating times in markets. Add that to an already volatile nascent asset class market...

protechtor Updated 

See analysis from early October. The lower trendline of the long term bullish channel is in play. We could drop down as low as .13 area before the bear completes. This is not required though, and the market could decide to head sideways until touching the lower trendline. What is becoming clear is that we are nearing the final stages of the bear market. This is...

protechtor

A few months ago, I provided this update: I won't rehash my macro view, except to say that I am still very bullish on owning the strongest digital assets each sector over the long haul. Having been invested in the crypto space since 2014, I have seen (and experienced) multiple sets of large pumps that in turn retraced near 100% of the pump in real time, with...

protechtor Updated 

It has been over a year since my last post (March 2018) on the long term wave count. At that time, the bears were successful at breaking through the lower trend channel... Here is what we know today: Wave is the first in a 5 wave impulse that ended at $3.3xx (Bitstamp). The bear market starting winter 2017/18 began wave . Once wave ends, wave will...

protechtor Updated 

Here is a potential inverse H&S I am watching in XRPUSD. Need to see a run up to the neckline near .45 - .46 from near current levels for it to be a serious contender, but since it slants upward, it could be a strong one. The alternative view is that the inverse H&S already played out in a move above the neckline at .39xx (move up to .44xx), but it was quickly...

protechtor

I have followed done my own analysis on BTCUSD for many years, but have stayed away from posting them publicly due to the sheer numbers of TA's publishing BTCUSD. Most are very, very inexperienced and with errors in their analysis, and a few are very strong. Plenty of coverage in other words. Why add one more... In this case, I will make an exception. Bitcoin...

protechtor

Back in March, I pointed out the imminent danger involved in a clear 5 wave Elliott pattern ending. I also said that we could have one more price high before heading down, but that the message would not change the longer term picture... that a major bear market was dead ahead. Here we are, 9 months later and the market is dangerously close to being tipped over...

protechtor Updated 

First off, I hope this pattern is invalidated. It is scary as #$@% for any HODL'er, especially those first buying in mid 2017 forward. I have been watching this pattern on the charts as a possible option since the massive spike up to near .76 in September. The selloff over the last week brings it up front and center. Bottom line: if we break through the...

protechtor

A few simple concepts to follow here. Two massive thrusts out of a declining wedge patterns (first wedge not fully pictured, but thrust in Spring 2017 clearly pictured)... both took price up to the top of what appears to be a much larger wedge pattern forming (higher lows, and lower highs). The third thrust broken out but hasn't yet reached the upper trendline...

protechtor

On March 23rd, I posted the following idea: The market needed one more high after that post, but all indicators were pointing to weakening strength of the move to new highs in September. The fuse was set. I tried to warn you. On a short term basis, the move down is very steep, and also carries a distinctive impulsive look and can be counted in five waves as of...

protechtor

In spite of the 90%+ retrace from all time highs, the pattern of the retrace has been a descending/falling wedge, which is bullish once the breakout occurs. Notice that the pattern in 2017 is the same... a falling wedge followed by a massive breakout to the upside. Will this time be the same? Time will tell, but I wouldn't want to be short right now. Volatility...

protechtor Updated 

As outlined in my previous post starting April 27 , I have been anticipating a correction from near .965 that counts best as a wave II correction after a five wave impulsive wave up from a low in April near .45. In short, the evidence is growing that the strong bear trend that began in late 2017/early 2018 in crypto is over, and that a new intermediate bull...

protechtor Updated 

Pattern is following very closely to post made on April 21st. If it is correct, then we are in wave C of wave II. The alternate bearish scenario has us in wave C of wave B. Both scenarios infer a rise up to above .96 once wave 2/B is finished... so for the moment, they are aligned. Are of support in .60's the likely stop. What becomes important to a trader is...

protechtor Updated 

Short term pattern shown (4HR). Check out my other posts for long term Elliott wave counts. They are alive and well. Back to the short term. We are watching a potential trend change in play. The pattern from lows in mid .40's is clearly impulsive and in five waves up toward .94. We now appear to be correcting that five wave impulse. There are a variety of...

protechtor Updated 

A quick aside... as complicated and nuanced as Elliott wave may seem, and while there are many "guidelines" within the theory, there are really only 3 hard and fast rules to it: Rule 1: Wave 2 cannot retrace more than 100% of Wave 1. Rule 2: Wave 3 can never be the shortest of the three impulse waves. Rule 3: Wave 4 can never overlap Wave 1. If any TA's have...

protechtor

I intentionally left off the higher level, longer term degree labeling to keep this chart very clear. At the very least, we have completed or are very near completion of a a five wave impulsive pattern from 2009. There will be at the very least a correction that ends within Target Area #1 (previous 4th wave is common retracement area). Based on the longer term...

protechtor Updated 

Nearing completion of right shoulder. If correct, this puts the target near .91. Many times h&s patterns do not play out, but being that it appears that there is also a bull flag forming gives this an interesting twist.

protechtor

A slight change to my previous long term Elliott wave counts to incorporate the new price low today that invalidated the previous 1-2 option I was following. Turns out the correction from Jan ATH was a more complex one. The more complex, longer lasting correction also served to flattened out the trend channel so that the upper and lower are parallel on the log...