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A quick view on the SPX500 future shows something interesting. It is not rock-solid analysis, but just something fishy that caught my eye and I want to share. Discussions are welcome. In the last week, we can see two interesting phenomena: - Big downwards price moves happen with big volume, mostly day time activity(blue) - Big upwards price moves happen with...

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Live cattle is bull. Early May it jumped from 87 to 94, and next day hitting 98. This breakout caused in the days to follow some oscillating within the 92-100 band, forming a clear up channel. Market hit 100 yesterday, found support on the mid channel level and closed just below 100. I’m pretty sure we will test it again today. My believe is this breakout,...

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In my last post I indicated a great buy opportunity on sugar at 0.100. Now one week later, sugar is trading roughly 7.5 percent higher at 0.1075. We can see it forms a nice uptrend since the strong rebound at 0.900 price level, forming a support line with the support at 0.100. We are dealing now with the previous local high of 0.108 early May, and we will battle...

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SPX has shown it’s bearish strength last 2 days. We went from the 2950 levels - where SPX was battling with the previous high, the Weekly 100 EMA and the Daily 50 EMA – to a new local low of 2765. One can see that the impulse with which the market went down was very convincing. However, market did not accept the low and traded up super strong after the low was...

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Chart says it all. We are trading inside a descending triangle, with clear support indicated by the blue zone, and a decreasing trendline indicated with blue. Take a shorth with your own preferred SL/TP. Trading is not about copying but about forming your own opinion.

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Copper battling with the 50 Daily EMA while finding support at the bottom of the channel. Note we are clearly making higher high's and higher low's . Trade the trend. Opportunity to buy, but first wait how it deals with the EMA.

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Sugar. It was in a clear downtrend from mid February. It tested the psychological level of 10.00 mid-april, broke through, found impulse-bounce support on 9.00, to go straight back to 10.00. After 10.00, it broke out, and slowly retraced back to 10. Since the impulse from 9.00 to above 10.50 went quick, and the retracement back to 10.00 slow, we can see assume...

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We saw last week 2950 was a super strong resistance. We tested it three times in a few days. This level coincides with the Weekly 200 EMA and the 100 Daily EMA. Also it has been a strong S/R historically. After being rejected for the third time, SPX lost it’s support and broke through the support trendline formed by the early march low and a low early may. This...

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A nice and clean channel on natural gas. Of course we need to await opening before we (can trade, duh) get confirmation. Breaking the channel would be bearish. At the moment we are hoovering around the 1.75 level that has been a well-battled level over the last two months. You see a lot of noise around there. Await confirmation by seeing gas finding support and...

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Bit of a longer term idea. We see a clear support line, heading up. Forms a decent basis for wheat prices. It shows a few high's over the last years, which form a clear target. Take length with your own preferred SL/TP. Trading is not about copying but about forming your own opinion.

pptw Updated 

We broke out of the negative trend line, backed up by higher low's indicated by the yellow increasing trendline, and a higher local high. For sharp entry: Wait for retracement till the horizontal line which acted as S/R recently, or wait till it retraces till the trendline. For strong conviction: Market order to get the length since it seems a new trend has...

pptw Updated 

Not a lot specific believe or view behind this post, apart from technicals. Over the last few weeks we were trading inside a triangle, mostly shaped by a huge collapse early in march and recovering afterwards. We broke out of the triangle last week. Palladium tends to trade down in a weakening economy, which is where we are heading given all the recent news. We...

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We are approaching an exciting moment. A big battle in the far right corner, with SPX retesting the support line it broke out from last week, and meanwhile finding support on exactly the same level on the trendline going from the low late march to the recent low’s early may. A downwards trendline. An upwards trendline. Colliding. And that exactly on the 2900...

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Not a lot specific believe or view behind this post, apart from technicals. Over the last few weeks we were trading inside a triangle, mostly shaped by a huge collapse early in march and recovering afterwards. We broke out of the triangle last week. Palladium tends to trade down in a weakening economy, which is where we are heading given all the recent news. We...

pptw Updated 

In my previous post I indicated my change in sentiment from bullish to bearish because of two trendlines that were invalidated due to new local low’s. I initiated a good sell zone in the top blue bar, given that price would move there. Yesterday we saw a strong rally up, moving into my sell zone, and even beyond. Instead of heading to my aimed level of 2885, the...

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Soon to break recent low and the support from early March? I think it's Bearish. We come from a crazy high which is coming off big time in last two months. Bit late to the show here, but I expect weakness to contiune, especially if we break the indicated level.

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In my last post I stated my bearishness because the - seemingly - rejection of >30 levels. Right after the post, a bull run started and we went from low 29 levels to 31.75. A very strong correction indicating market still believes in upside. The momentum stopped exactly at the trendline forming the broadening falling wedge. When reversing, heading down again,...

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New to the commodities but it's something I want to focus on more. Just sharing a very short view here: We see a clear rejection of the 30> levels on UK Oil. This is specifically visible on the daily chart, with a bearish 2-bar reversal. This level got rejected, we are in clear downtrend looking at the moving averages, and we closed below 30. Now we are hovering...