A break above $20.20 would validate the upside move towards 21.20 for completion of wave a.
The German stock index DAX is at important Fibonacci resistances and momentum overbought area. We are expecting a down wave corrective movement towards the 10160 area, max 8920. Only a new weekly close above 12 220 would invalidate this bearish view.
The S&P500 is at important resistances based on Fibonacci projections and showing bearish momentum divergence. We are expecting a corrective down wave (4) towards the 1855 area. Only a new weekly close above 2120 would invalidate this bearish scenario.
The Russell 2000 Index has reached important Fibonacci projection levels. We are expectiong a down wave (4) towards the 1060 area. Only a new weekly close above 1268 would invalidate this bearish scenario.
The QQQ has reached it's all time high monthly close near 109.50 and corresponding to important Fibonacci projections levels. We are exepcting a corrective down wave 4 towards 90. Only a new high on a weekly close above 109.50 would invalidate this bearish scenario.
The Nasdaq 100 Index has reached important Fibonacci levels. We believe it's up wave (3) has been completed and a corrective wave (4) is under way with a target towards the 3600 area. Only a new weekly close higher would invalidate this bearish scenario.
The Dow Jones Industrial to Gold ratio has reached a key resitance area near the 15 level for the completion of what we believe was corrective wave 4. We are expecting a continuation of the bearish move with the final downwave V. First target near the 2011 low of 5.69.
The yield on the US TNote 10-Year remains in a long term downtrend channel, looking to complete it's down wave (3) of V towards 0.70%. A break above 2.20% would invalidate this trade and a break above 3.04% would invalidate the whole bearish pattern.
10-Year US Treasury yield remains in a long term downtrend channel, in the process of completing downwave (3) of V near the bottom of the channel at around 0.70%. Key resistance that if broken would invalidate this bearish scenario is the 3.04% level.
The DBA seems to have started it's bullish long term up wave 5/. Buy on pullback near the former line linking the tops since 2008 and corrective wave 2 target of 38.2% retracement of wave 1, near 27.50. Target of wave 3 at 35.50 with stop at around 25.45/24.95.
Wait for completion of wave 4/ near 16 to enter the short on the Dow/Gold ratio (meaning being long gold and short the Dow Industrial). Target at 1 !!
Enter a short on TSX Composite at the all time high test around 15 100. Expecting a down wave C/ from there all the way to 10 000, a 33% bear market.
Nasdaq Composite is overbought and has reached resistance area. Time to play the wave (4) on the short side before the last up wave that should bring the index back to its high of 2000 for a massive double top formation of wave (5) V.
A drop to test the previous high at 14 200 is expected. A new high would invalidate this view. Only a definitive break below this level would validate that a major top has been made and that the index could drop all the way down to the bottom of it's expanding triangle.
The DOW INDU is at resistance, a drop is expected to at least test the previous high of 2007 near 14 200. Only a break below that level would validate that a major top has been made - and that the market could drop all the way to the bottom of its expanding triangle.
Natural gas broke above the neckline of it's bullish reversed Head & Shoulders pattern. Potential is equal to the height of the formation, giving a $7.30 target.
Play the wave 4 down to test previous high near 1600/1580, Tight stop just above recent highs.