pogicraft

pogicraft

Where we go from here is very much up in the air. For any that want to play either bump in the charts, just know that its a very important time and place for both bullish/bearish continuations/traps/reversals/etc Do you believe in the Fed? Do you believe the Fed? Do you believe seasonality? Do you believe we are going to have a break from seasonality? We are...

pogicraft Updated 

Did bears just take a dive? One could, or would, usually say that after an onslaught of steady bullish buying, bears finally gave up and covered to close yesterday. But looking at the technical levels and behavior, it seems too perfect today. Is it possible that bears pushed the price up on purpose past all resistances and now, at this price point, there are no...

pogicraft

I really doubt that.... the only way conceivable would be the green curve to the green line. I think we're shaky but bullish, if for no other reason than that we have to be. This is my 'I told you' chart that I'm making public so I can reference it later -- but honestly doesn't help anyone very much right now. Except to say that the moans and groans that you hear...

pogicraft

This is basically just me roughly tracing different moving averages through our most recent adventure in the dip. Many people wondering when a good time to buy might have been. Many people seeing economic optimism and a generally bullish April. I don't remember what my point was. In no way am I bullish yet -- unless you have a timeframe > 1 month. No more rate...

pogicraft

I just wanted a quick dip, profit and exit.... I'm literally stuck with too much capital on too much risk. But in the process I did wake up and realize the potential beauty and deadly possibility of our new favorite drug -- rate increases! If one is to weigh the potential for a recession now vs a month ago, between Ukraine and the subsequent rising gas/food...

pogicraft

From a technical analysis point of view, the current setup is quite straightforward. Pennant, Ascending Wedge, expecting to be followed by another breakout attempt which when fails, will fall back and continue in a sideways rangebound manner. Now, they always tell you to stake your entries and set up your stop losses... so its not guaranteed. But as far as...

pogicraft

Actually this is a small collection of my lessons from today -- specifically the past hour and a half. 1. Indicators are always a lagging indicator. I really don't believe anyone can trade with technical analysis with the actual price chart turned off (though not enough people remind us to look back at the actual chart) and what we all look for in them is follow...

pogicraft

This is both a market that is in a rush to go nowhere and simultaneously a puffed up bag of air ready to be taken away with the next breeze. Using technical analysis would literally be like trying to predict the next breeze based on the previous one right now because there is no substance to any of the moves. So I'm just going to draw some lines. We seem to be in...

pogicraft

I'm actually not sure what I saw but my certainty just went from 40% to 80% and can chart a path forward. Today has been a weird day -- oil down bitcoin up, bond yields up but dollar weakening.

pogicraft

small bounce here and continued dip towards friday is possible and maybe even probable. But just for full disclosure, I day trade/ intra day trade and despite medium term support around today's price levels, I'm out to cash already and looking to tomorrow. So if you're long because you think you're following me, the risk/reward outlook right now for me is too muddy.

pogicraft

At least in the short term I think the market just signaled a bottom. America and the world order have fired all their bullets and the situation in ukraine can only get better. With the imposition of oil bans, there are no more steps western powers are prepared to take and prices of things can start stabilizing and uncertainty can take its cloud elsewhere. There...

pogicraft Updated 

Generally broad but I'm feeling pretty confident about this much. We'll start at $444 tomorrow, might be a little rocky but general sentiment will be bullish. Slowdowns are scarier than rate hikes/inflation and we'll be looking up till like the middle of March. This at least lays out some super oversold levels, even for those who hate risk and some levels where...

pogicraft

Tons of signals.... plenty of money to be made.... no confirmation, no impetus, no conviction yet on the next movement.

pogicraft

Today is the kind of day we switch to a chart like this. It's got multiple timeframes indicating different phases of previous movements into potential future date ranges. It's got lines to keep an eye on, both potential resistance and support lines, or target price lines. And I think between volume yesterday and today, markets are short term done with being sad...

pogicraft

If you want to play the market, you'll take risks. If you've got a couple months timeframe, it may be a good time to begin your entries. If you've got a couple years, I'm really not sure if I have advice for you. All I should say is that it will bounce back and sometime before 2024, the stock market will be higher than it is today. And I can only 99% be sure of that much.

pogicraft

The timing seems all wrong. If you're trading earnings, this is your moment. If you're trading technicals, you might have to wait for a pattern to form. One is starting but the timing seems all wrong -- we'd call for a short target of $466 on Friday the 14th. But bank earnings come out that day, and next week. And you know they're going to be great. Not only that...

pogicraft Updated 

I recognize that everyone wants the simple answers. I recognize everyone has the same question -- What will stocks do in a rising rate environment everything else equal? Probably this site will get popular as people wonder if technical analysis can help answer that question. But by the time it can, most of the movement will be over. Dam, I need to finish this...

pogicraft Updated 

I think we've been hit with too much at once. Omicron, tapering, continuously funky economic data. There was supposed to be more time. Oh yeah and oil prices and treasury yields have come back down again. Unfortunately it looks like (expectations wise) people are expecting us to switch from tapering to stimulus again but we didn't have enough time to reload and...