Adam-Cox

Adam-Cox

Referring to the cost basis of DOGE/USD, realised profit/loss suggests that a majority of holders of DOGE are HODL'ing with an extremely small fraction realising losses overall. Only a small fraction of the market trading DOGE actively. Cost basis has remained unchanged at around USD 0.20, which in my opinion has formed an important breakeven point and a level...

Adam-Cox

BTCUSD cost basis indicates that potentially the downside target is just over USD 12k, with upside of the range currently around USD 24k. This analysis's is based on 75% of BTC current supply (being around 80% of 21 million) can be traded and around 20% of that supply is more active than HODL or cold wallet volumes. Whether 60% or 75% numbers are used, the...

Adam-Cox

With further re-opening of domestic air travel in New Zealand and potential foreign destinations opening with higher vaccination rates - it would seem a good time to start reviewing companies like Air New Zealand.

Adam-Cox

Again, a cautionary note - like X, keep an eye on the levels and trade tactically with an underlying fundamental rationale. Debt ceiling etc., still not resolved even though infrastructure bill passed.

Adam-Cox

With the infrastructure bill being passed, we may see companies like US Steel and CLF benefit. It is interesting however to note the current multi-year trading range, so I think that a technical trade plan with an underlying fundamental rationale are both important for active traders getting involved in the infrastructure play.

Adam-Cox

With the US infrastructure bill passed and GDP expansion via fiscal support, the broad market is still long. VIX curve show no signs of backwardation, but the cautionary note is the Debt Ceiling and Budget issues coming up - these may provide buying or covered call writing opportunities. Side note: no hyper inflation and relates going lower as Fed rate rises are...

Adam-Cox

Previously noted as a buy around an area of consolidation and Cost Basis (refer related article), the parabolic retrace is a sign that buy at limit at lower prices is appropriate, and any cover writing or exit longs could consider these price levels to reduce exposure.

Adam-Cox

As previously pointed-out ! The 'axiomatic' mode continues: - SPX Up - DXY Down - Commodity Currencies Down ... and vis versa.

Adam-Cox

The market is treading water - no need to get chewed-up trading 'noise'; just waiting for a break to trade!

Adam-Cox

Quick note: pure short term technical - no other analysis :) PS. right chart this time !

Adam-Cox Updated 

My quick very and short term assessment of intraday price action :)

Adam-Cox

Right or wrongly, as soon as the word ' taper' is announced, or even eluded to - the market goes into Ape mode and trades axiomatically - in full Ape mode it means: - Sell SPY - Buy DXY - Sell commodity currencies. Tapering is actually positive, so in effect the right thing to do if you don't want to scalp the short Ape Trade, is buy at lower levels...

Adam-Cox

Previously I wrote a brief note explaining caution for the US Banking industry as illustrated by XLF. This is due to: - market risk of a broader market pullback - as currently being experienced - impact from Covid-19 variants like Delta etc., - the cumulation of record high bank reserves (cash) which serve to stress Bank Capital and Capital adequacy ratios....

Adam-Cox

I have been anticipating the broader market's decline for some weeks, despite good fiscal support and a growing economy (no hyper inflation!), there are still issues which serve to spook the market; these are: - Debt ceiling still has not been resolved, - "Taper", the market words which are in effect positive for the market will serve to further spook the...

Adam-Cox

Negative Parabolic Growth. Yes, parabolic growth can be negative. growth rate is negative and the Rate of Decline is increasing! This phenomenon was identified previously in context to the negative costs of carry associated with inverse ETFs and in particularly inverse VIX ETFs. The old trading saying goes like: " never short a null market!", and the case of...

Adam-Cox

Parabolic Growth - A Quick Note Positives parabolic growth rates occur when both Growth is positive , and the Rate of Change is also increasing - the 2nd derivative is increasing in calculus terms. Obviously, the rate of geometric growth can only increase so far, otherwise price change would increase infinitely! Parabolic growth on daily charts and lower...

Adam-Cox

Common sense really - risk factors are: - Infrastructure deal delayed or significantly watered-down - Volatility from the debt ceiling negotiations - Broader market sell-off as per above points - Covid variants (but may be positive for tech stocks but buy on pull backs) Unless XLF is going to provide some good value, and that is only after a pull brake in...

Adam-Cox

My strategy for the SP500 index is as follows: - Exit Long positions on rallies and hold a core long position for the long term ( "time in the market") - Wait for a deep pullback to start adding back Longs (SP500 is growth function) - Happy to scalp short term, but I like a to 'load the wagon" long if we had a decent 600-1000 point correction! - Trade in...