patrickofthepatricks

patrickofthepatricks Updated 

CFTC Speculative Net Positions against the Dollar are giving a long bias for both EUR and CAD, but a bigger one for the EUR (0.547 vs 0.410), and that disadvantage on the CAD is even bigger because of falling Oil prices due to geopolitical factors. Bank valuation on this currency pair sits at 1.4320-1.4350 for the next three months, which means that it is quite...

patrickofthepatricks

CFTC Speculative Net Positions at -0.547 (Long for the Euro). Bank valuation for this pair sits at 1.1600 and up from there, which makes it extremely undervalued. And even though the main trend is still bearish (and it is going to be like that for quite some time), the Dollar has to take a breathe. The Fed has had a really hawkish position for a long time and that...

patrickofthepatricks Updated 

CFTC Speculative Net Positions against the Dollar at -1.280, which it is extremely positive for the cable and the price didn't react yet (Data divergence). Bank valuation extremely optimistic too, expecting a price of 1.37 by the end of November, and an uptrend from that point until November of 2022. in fact, GBP/USD is sitting at 1.3400, which is almost at the...

patrickofthepatricks

CFTC Speculative Net Positions at 2.235, good for the Dollar. Bank valuation very optimistic, with a 1.26 valuation by the end of the month, and 1.25 by the end of November. RIsk reversals 1 week vs 1 month showing strength for the Dollar against the Cad. Technicals: Head and shoulders, break of the previous trend and a big divergence in the RSI. FX:USDCAD

patrickofthepatricks

EURCHF looking very cheap from this point. Bank forecasts price this currency pair at 1.08 by the end of this month (Very optimistic, but I think that we could see it going to 1.08 in the first half of November). Euro implied volatility for 1 month expiry options against the dollar are still on the minus side (Puts more expensive than Calls), but we saw a very...

patrickofthepatricks

The first scenario shows a more conservative and short term trade, but considering the general direction markets are heading as of now, (big hopes for a nice and easy reopening of the Eurozone) the second and bigger scenario is a more logic one. FX:EURUSD

patrickofthepatricks

First TP at 0.8765 FX:EURGBP