nikodemuskell

nikodemuskell

Newmont corporation is the largest gold miner in the world, operating since 1921. Per one of their presentations, 5 year cumulative cash flow at $1,800/oz is $17B or $3.4B/year, for a company currently valued at $49B. Newmont is currently 40% higher than the beginning of the year and has staged an impressive rise since the lows of March 13. If $NEM can clear...

nikodemuskell

GDX is the ETF for gold miners. This sector has been beaten down severely since its 2010-11 highs, when everyone was hedging against printing from Bernanke. If only we knew then what Powell would have become... GDX has broken out the $32 resistance, which has acted as a strong support in the last month. If Gold AUG futures (left axis, in orange) manage to get...

nikodemuskell

Last few days in $BA have been absolutely brutal. If you have been holding calls hoping to get to 200MA... it's really tough. Depending on how market reacts after today's sell-off, I expect the stock to find strong support on the way down, and cracking the 150s should be difficult for the shorts unless market is spiraling down. I am slowly adding to my position in $BA

nikodemuskell

As the 'stay at home' stock trade par excellence, NFLX has benefited from the resurgence of FANGs since the March lows (+58%). The streaming offering is getting overcrowded and among the others Disney will rely on Disney+ more and more as a core part of their offering, which means that NFLX pricing power is eroded. With the economy reopening, NFLX appears...

nikodemuskell

SPY is adamant to continue its rise until the testing of the 200 SMA at 299-300. Last week trading is emblematic, with the tone set on Monday with the monster rally and gap up due to the Moderna vaccine 'news', slowly sold off through the week as it was essentially fake news, and bumped up despite horrible news from China on Friday due to the miraculous Fauci...

nikodemuskell

If you have followed recently W, it is up around 8x the lows it made six weeks ago. This parabolic move is in my view completely unsustainable and it is the result of some hedge fund positioning in 'order from home stocks'. OSTK has experienced a strong move too, but from a much smaller market cap (therefore much easier to manipulate). AMZN and BABA have been...

nikodemuskell

$QDEL is a diagnostic testing manufacturer gapping up 18% this morning to $185. What a massive run since the beginning of March.

nikodemuskell

IBB is ready to revisit the highs of 133 made in July 2015, after a 4x increase since 2011 which was the equivalent of the dot-com bubble. Assuming that pandemic issues are going to be a recurring catalyst, biotech could be ready to take again the mantle of market leader from technology (maybe it is a relay?). Anyway, it seems a cup-and-handle breakout from 130s...

nikodemuskell

Betting against QQQ has been suicide since its insane rebound from the March lows. FANGMAN stocks are holding up pretty much the equity market right now, and demand is through the roof: they are in every fund manager portfolio, the Swiss National Bank is purchasing them as a price insensitive buyer and the recent earnings releases have done much to assuage...

nikodemuskell

Slack has been a middling story since its vaunted Direct Listing in July 2019, after 10 years of existence. The stock was listed initially at $26, rose to $42 immediately and has sold off since, given that growth has been slowing down and operations continue to be cash flow negative. Despite the 28 P/S multiple, the stock seems posed for a run towards its...

nikodemuskell

For all the talk of V-shaped recovery and endless growth in equities, I have charted performance of the Nikkei since 1985.

nikodemuskell

After an absolutely devastating March, in which small caps have been punished because of lack of size, funding, connections, etc., it seems that the bleeding has stopped, at least compared to other indexes. While much has been written about the S&P 61.8 retracement since the March 23rd low and potential retest of those lows, IWM / RTY offers a better relative...

nikodemuskell

But they are not believing this rally today. NQ in red while RTY is up 4%

nikodemuskell

Ultra Bonds have tagged 248'27 on March 9, when 10-year Treasuries reached all time lows of 0.318%. Given that markets have somehow stabilized since then but we are not out of the woods and we may again retest lows in equities, UB could be expected to be bid again

nikodemuskell

... especially now that it has been nationalized, negative rates for 10 year are around the corner.

nikodemuskell

Given the exponential rise in the VIX as the S&P was falling, the violent rally of the last two days was expected to be accompanied by a steady decline in the VIX. Not so fast. VIX keeps on hovering around 61-62 despite a 250+ points rally. Additional bounces from the S&P to be taken with a lot of caution, and potentially faded around the 2660-70 area (which is...

nikodemuskell

It seems that the dominance of heavy hitting Tech NQ companies vs. the general ES has come to a screeching halt in the last couple days, since TWTR and FB have mentioned that digital advertising is weakening given that many companies are gearing up to survival mode. In the last two days of rally, the NQ has been substantially underperforming ES and even RTY,...

nikodemuskell

I expect the S&P to plummet to the one-thousands as part of the fastest bear market in history, given the unprecedented shutting down of the world economy. The biggest catalyst for a bounce should be the stimulus package from Congress, whose benefit will be short lived and will likely mark a reversal of the insane strength of the dollar. Once approved though,...