Turned from bullish to neutral as I got out or rolled most of the position. The late sell of at the end of the day confirmed my thoughts. Future Spreads are still firm, and on a weekly timeframe we still look quite bullish. USDBRL has come off from the highs, but is running into a little support. Prices could advance, but there is too much uncertainty, hence...
Running into the 200 day MA at 51, which should give some resistance, as well as the upper Bollinger bands. If it breaks a little to the upside targets at If a correction takes place levels to look out for at 4780-4820
Moving from short to neutral as cocoa runs into support and seams to run out of steam. RSI and Stochastik are in oversold areas. Even though we didnt reach the red target line, I am cautious about the short position. Dec/Mar future spreads are firmer today indicating. Yet too early to reverse the position IMHO
This is more a waiting game for the USDBRL to finally make a correction lower in order for KC to rally. BUY signals from a week ago have not been confirmed, yet we still sit on support in terms of the long term trend channel and the lower BB at 117. Also, this is a Z15 contract low, which could lend some support. Better risk reward being long at these levels IMHO
While MA and the structure seems down, I am looking for a bounce as NG was clearly oversold and ran into support at 2,468, which was the previous low for the year. Buy signals also on Stochastic and forming on RSI as well. While I know this might be early to talk about a reversal I think a bounce is due. I am looking for middle Bollinger bands as resistance and...
In the meantime, resistance levels at previous highs 4725-47.50 49.50 and upper Bollinger bands, 100 day MA (currently at 51, but sloping down). Target based on breakout of the triangle and triangle width which leads to a target projection of 50.50ish Buy signals: + 9 day and 20 day MA crossed 50 day MA + Breakout of triangle From the news: + Hurricane Joaqim +...
Still bullish SB as it appreciated over the past month. It really gained momentum has it had to break out from oversold conditions. What happened over the course was the term structure (future spreads) are now in backwardation for the entire next year. This leaves me with remaining bullish as it foreshadows supply tightness coming out of Brazil. Also the USDBRL...
Hammer formation and bullish engulfing at the lower end of a 3 year downtrend channel and lower Bollinger band Short term target around the upper Bollinger band with further upside towards the higher end of the trend channel Also to note: USD/BRL is on a mutliyear high, hence a retracement in the currency pair would send the prices in Sugar higher.
We had bearish divergences a couple weeks ago and now cocoa came off. Target around 3100, but some support around 3200 with middle Bollinger Bands, 20 day MA and 50 day MA and 100 day MA around 3185 Future spreads have weakened from (base Dec/Mar) from +16 to +1 with a low of -2 today
Well, there is a move coming, but to be honest I see bearish and bullish signals, hence I remain neutral. In this case, with lower option vols, IMHO it might be worth while putting on some strangles for Nov or Dec expiration. Bearish case: 9 day MA crossing 20 day down Symmetrical triangle forming Bullish: 20 day MA crossed 50 day MA Future spreads very bullish...
After cocoa broke the downward trend channel a few weeks ago, we have seen it break to the upside from 3100 to 3330. Upside target/resistance levels: - previous high around 3400 - Upper Bollinger Bands - the 20 day MA is just below the 50 day MA, but hasn't crossed yet. Noteworthy: - As of today, we made a new high, but RSI and Stochastik haven't made a...
I have been neutral on CC for the past few weeks, but something is brewing. I favor a break towards the upside for following reasons IMHO: 1. Support area; failed to break to downside; 2. Broke out of downtrend. 3. Future spreads went back in backwardation 4. Buy signals on RSI and Stochastik 5. Bollinger Bands are very tight
Several indicators point to resistance levels between 48-50.50 - Upper Bollinger Bands 48ish - 50 day Moving average 49ish - previous Support at 50.50 Generally speaking overbought conditions. Would be surprised the market to take a breather. 1st target middle Bollinger Band at 43 and 20 day MA around the same level
I would have liked to see a divergence in RSI, Stochastik vs price, but it didn't happen this time; regardless a decent buy signal for coffee. Future spreads have been steady and unch in the recent days, suggesting a low is in place. USDBRL is a key indicator, if it continues to fall after hitting the triangle breakout target there might be more upside for KC
Awaiting development in USDBRL on this symmetrical triangle formation Most of the time if a triangle like this happens in a trend, the breakout that follows goes with the trend. Yet, to me, it is wait and see. Implications on commodities: - Breakout higher would be bearish for sugar and coffee (both traded in USD on the ICE) - Breakout lower would mean...
Neutral for the time being. Running into support at 42. Expect a little bounce from here. Upside limit middle BB --> retracement in the downtrend possible Candles suggest a change in trend, I doubt it ll be bullish, but worth noting. Future Spreads have been stronger over the last few days. Overall mixed signals, hence I am neutral
Looks like a retracement in the downtrend. Some buy signals on the support at 3029. Future spreads strong, which indicate bullishness, but in order to break the downtrend a settle of 3100 or higher would be necessary.
Moving from neutral to bearish as Doji or spinning top was confirmed. Also RSI and Stochastik crossed lower now and we failed to break resistance level at 143 1st target middle BB at 132; Base is Z15 contract