lever_tf_up

lever_tf_up

Plotting USD Liquidity for the past 5 years versus the S&P and Bitcoin. Made twitter-famous by Raoul Pal and Arthur Hayes. As we can see in the chart, liquidity is tightly correlated with the S&P and also drives Bitcoin cycles. Liquidity looks to lead price movements in both assets classes. Question for the community: How can we best forecast moves in USD liquidity?

lever_tf_up Updated 

Formula constructed based on Arthur Hayes post, 'Teach Me Daddy'. USD Liquidity Conditions Index = The Fed’s Balance Sheet — NY Fed Total Amount of Accepted Reverse Repo Bids — US Treasury General Account Balance Held at NY Fed USD Liquidity — Number Go Up: Fed Balance Sheet — Increases RRP Balances — Decreases TGA — Decreases USD Liquidity — Number Go...